Tag: Veerman

by Jan

The State of Orange (Oranje)

As a national team coach, you want to be able to mould your best team, tactics, approach and squad by now, some 3 months before the tournament.

The two friendlies, against serious opponents, should have told us many things. And it did. But not sure if it was what Koeman wanted.

Not sure what the plan was versus Scotland, with the new 3-5-2 set up (or 3-2-3-2).

Disappointingly for Koeman, we won’t know for sure as the execution was not great. Some players didn’t reach their usual level (Wieffer, Simons, Frimpong) while Memphis is clearly not 100% fit.

Add to that the absence – again – of Frenkie and it’s hard to ascertain where we stand.

Versus Scotland, we played under par for an hour or so but still won 4-0. Against Germany , we played well at stages but lost 1-2.

Two corner kicks: two goals. Fixable, sure, but not something Koeman will be happy with.

Koeman was able to use his subs and shift form shape to shape, so the flexibility of the team and the adaptability of the team seems to be getting better.

I think, when all the players will be fit, we do have a very good squad. But I also think that France, England, Spain and Italy are a bit further than us, in terms of solid game play, patterns and key players.

Sadly, as it happens with every tournament, we won’t have all players available at the Euros.

Some conclusions:

Stop the silly systems debate

As always, people spend hours debating which system Holland should play. This is an irrational discussion. We played 4-3-3 versus Scotland, or so it seemed. But it was actually a 3-5-2. Against Germany, we played 3-2-3-2 but again, in the practice it was. four man defence as one of the midfielders dropped back to start the build up. Daley Blind was hardly ever in defence, but played as an extra midfielder and at times as a number 10 even. Joey Veerman dropped back to assist the defenders in their build up. Ake moves to the left back space.

In the second half, Blind kept the pitch wide, allowing Memphis to explore the half spaces on the left hand side.

Ake as left centre back, Blind playing wide wingback in a 4 men midfield.

What system is this? Never mind. It’s about space and how to use the space. Not about numbers on a playing field, when the ref whistles to start the match.

Creating the free man

Koeman is keen to use his midfielders and front men to create a free man in our team. He put Reijnders one v one on Kroos and instructed Memphis to harass Andrich, the Germany holding mid. This forced Germany to build up via Tah. This way Koeman could stack the centre of the pitch with two holding mids (Veerman, Schouten) and always kept three defenders to deal with the mercurial Germany forwards.

Blind playing central midfielder

This chess face-off meant that Germany was still in control on their own half, but were not able to be a threat against us, in terms of goal scoring opportunities.

Here Blind is playing as second 10

Donyell Malen is like a panther

We have quite a number of top forwards or top potentials in the attacking line, with Lang (now injured), Gakpo, Simons, Brobbey, Zirkzee, Stengs and Bergwijn but Malen offers something the others players don’t have. Malen is explosive, fast and very willing to make runs deep. The other players all want the ball to feet. Lang and Simons do tend to go deep, as does Bergwijn, but not as their first instict. Malen is like a panther, lurking and watching for his change to spring into action.

This makes him a unique player in the squad and should cement his spot in the squad if not the team. In the first half, Malen was instrumental in our first goal, even though he never touched the ball. He had two more breaks and in the second half he presented both Memphis and Reijnders with 2 100% chances. Both players mishit the ball and aimed too high.

Yes, Malen played well but goes to sleep here and allows Musiala some touches in the box

Still, he has his moments of snoozing off (like big cats do) and he was at fault, partly, with the first German goal. He didn’t cut off the pass and was a bit late in reacting to their short corner allowing Musiala to be a threat ( who assisted the ball to the goalscorer).

Jerdy Schouten is a keeper

Schouten played against Germany like he does for PSV, all season long. Very tight on the ball, always in control, always with great care. Van Gaal didn’t think he was good enough after half a game for Holland but Peter Bosz and Ronald Koeman are convinced. On top of that, Schouten plays a lot of forward passes as well, in true Frenkie de Jong style, starting a number of threatening moves. When he got subbed, at the 75th minute, he had most interceptions to his name as well. I don’t want to be over the top here, but he would be a top replacement for Toni Kroos at Real Madrid.

I think Schouten passed his exams and will battle it out with Koopmeiners, Wieffer, Reijnders, De Roon and Veerman for the next-to-Frenkie spot.

Our goalies are fine

We don’t need to worry about our goalies anymore. Flekken and Verbruggen both impressed. Bijlow will return. Nick Olij is a fine shotstopper and Bizot has impressed in France.

So, it seems we might be in good shape this summer.

But if we go through to the last 4, I believe it will be partly due to luck and a favourable draw.

I don’t think Oranje deserves to be seen as a top contender but with the right mix and the key players available and in form, we can surprise.

Koeman called this international break “the final exams”. The jigsaw pieces have not all been in place to show the big picture and the former Barca coach is still playing with them.

Verbruggen impressed

His own conclusion: “I have not been able to find the right combinations, and I fear it’s the result of this injury ridden campaign. And as the calendar keeps getting fuller, I don’t understand why we are now being limited to take 23 players instead of 26. We know already from experience that from the date we have to send in our list of names and the first match, players will drop off. That is always the case.”

Koeman said he already knows who his Euros goalie is, and it seems to be Bart Verbruggen. Only Bijlow is fit and plays a series of impressive matches will he be able to replace Bizot as third goalie.

In defence, it is clear that Virgil, Ake, De Ligt, Dumfries and Geertruida are certain of their spot. Frimpong didn’t impress this time around, but used properly, the speedy right wing back will make the squad, as will multi-functional brainiac Daley Blind.

In midfield, a fit Frenkie is on the bus as well, as will Reijnders be. He didn’t disappoint in his Oranje matches and impresses with his legs, lungs, intelligence and technique.

Wijnaldum seems a shoe in as well. Why select him now otherwise. Koeman has loyalty to Gini and knows the former Feyenoord talent gels well with Memphis. Mats Wieffer has mixed results but Koeman rates the midfielder high and he does have some credit. But he’ll need to show it to the coach in the coming matches.

Schouten is in the same boat as Wieffer. Very promising but a thin foundation as yet. Koeman will be focusing on their performances in the coming months.

Marten de Roon will most likely be in the squad as the only enforcer we have. He never complaints and is one of the leaders off the pitch. Koopmeiners however, who had to leave the camp with an injury, is exceptional in the Serie A, but never really impressed in the orange jersey.

Joey Veerman is not for everyone. Very good on the ball, vulnerable without. He played well in the past Oranje matches but was exposed in several CL matches for PSV. Koeman will throw a dice regarding Veerman and Koopmeiners.

Quinten Timber might nog have been able to show enough in this break and might need to focus on a spot after the Euros, to replace Wijnaldum on the road to 2026.

Xavi Simons is one of the few creative sparks in the team and despite a disappointing series, he will be on the bus as well.

Upfront, it seems Memphis, Gakpo, Malen and Weghorst are certain of their ticket. The question marks will be stalwarts Berghuis and Bergwijn, who both need a super strong finish of the season. Koeman mentioned before that he finds Berghuis to be a unique player and therefore potentially a part of the squad. This gives Koeman another option on the right wing.

Calvin Stengs might have a super end to the campaign and also be in the running for the right wing position. Brobbey and Zirkzee will also be right in Koeman’s radar for the coming games and Brobbey will be part of the squad when fit, it feels.

Micky van der Ven, the left footed centre back of Spurs could also make the squad as his speed and ability to play on any spot in defence makes him an ideal squad player.

Some more question marks: Q Hartman, Stefan de Vrij, Nick Olij, Ian Maatsen and Noa Lang.

And what to do with Summerville… He’s on fire for Leeds and is close to a senior call up, in particular when one or more attacking options (Gakpo, Malen, Simons) fall away with injuries…

Strap yourselfs in, we’re heading to an exciting finish of the season.

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by Jan

Oranje’s bright future…

It’s a bit cynical maybe to speak of a bright future after a loss in the Euro qualifications, but with Koeman’s 3-4-3 and the talents cherished by AZ, Feyenoord, PSV and …. Ajax (?), we should be able to mould a winning team again.

We will need to reach the Euros of course and that is not a certainty yet, but with the Greece game coming up and our escape route via the Nations League standings, it’s hard to believe we won’t be making it.

There have been some good suggestions on the blog for ideal pairings and such. I think it’s best to stay flexible also taking form and the strength of the opponent into consideration.

Goal Keepers

With Bijlow, Flekken, Verbruggen, Olij, Vaessen, Van Gassel, Gorter, Room, Noppert I don’t think we’ll have many issues here.

Bijlow remains my favorite, although Verbruggen will develop into a top goalie as well. If we have 3 goalies who can stop shots, distribute the ball, coach well and remain fit, I think we should be happy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Trio

Van Dijk will be beyond criticism, as will Ake be. I think De Vrij will make way soon for Van der Ven/Botman. De Ligt is not ideal in this role as he will have trouble seconding for Dumfries/Frimpong as occasional “right back”. He’s not very agile and needs a direct opponent to bite himself into. I would see De Ligt as the replacement for Van Dijk. With space around the right centre back, the likes of Timber and Geertruida are more suited for that role on the right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Van der Ven impressing in orange and in London

Wingbacks

It’s clear that Dumfries and Frimpong on the right and Hartmann, Malacia, Maatsen will be the main guys for the wingback role. I haven’t ruled Karsdorp out on the right, but he’ll need more playing time of course. Mitchell Bakker can be an option on the left and who knows, Wijndal?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mercurial Frimpong

Central midfield

De Roon will probably always play a role in the squad as coach appreciate his physical strength, his tactical discipline and leadership but from a football perspective, Reinders, Wieffer and Veerman and even Schouten (PSV) will eclipse him at some point.

To me Schouten is a more complete “De Roon”. The PSV midfielder is also a great passer of the ball. Shame that he was overlooked, in particular with Koopmeiners out.

Frenkie will be a certainty. Koopmeiners/Frenkie hasn’t worked too well. Reinders could be a good partner for Frenkie. I personally rate him overall higher than Veerman who remains to be weak without the ball. Schouten/Frenkie can work well too, I believe.

Ryan Gravenberch is doing really in his early Liverpool days and he and Frenkie might also end up being a strong partnership. Not sure about Gravenberch as a 10. I can see Reijnders playing as a 10 though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jerdy Schouten

Forwards

Up front, it might get tough for Memphis to get back into the team, in particular if Koeman can get Brobby to perform. Gakpo and Xavi Simons are probably solid options for the coach. Noa Lang is on fire at PSV. A forward trio of Lang, Gakpo and Xavi Simons looks really amazing, with Malen, Bergwijn as support. Danjuma is a bit of a dark horse. No idea why he cut his time at Villareal short, as he was doing so well there and then he ended up with Everton??

Zirkzee and Joel Piroe might end up becoming top strikers for us too, in the years to come. Another forward/midfielder I really rate is Ruben van Bommel of AZ, currently in Jong Oranje.

In that squad, managed by Michael Reiziger, players like Kenneth Taylor, Jorrel Hato (Ajax defender), Dirk Proper (NEC) and Isaac Babadi (PSV) look like the real deal, as I’m also impressed with Noah Ohio (Standard Luik). The latter played his youth football in Manchester at United and City.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ruben van Bommel scoring while Mark van Bommel is tearing up

Coaches and playing style

Ronald Koeman seems to have the sympathy factor in The Netherlands, based on his past as a player and based on his last stint as national team manager, as he is seen as the man who got Oranje out of the slumps. He’s not the most innovative or even adventurous coaches, but with Erwin Koeman next to him and more important, Sipke Hulshoff next to him, we should have all elements in place. Erwin is a great field coach and analyticus while Hulshoff offers the more modern coaching aspects to the team (stats, video analysis). Pat Lodewijks is always praised for his wonderful set piece ploys.

As clubs like PSV, Feyenoord, AZ but also Sparta and even Almere City transforming into high press, high octane teams (Ajax currently lacking behind a bit) and with top internationals playing this style of football already under Klopp, Guardiola and Xavi, it’s only a matter of time before Oranje plays in this same vein, forcing the likes of Xavi Simons, Memphis and Lang into the mould as well.

We will only get better.

The Greece game will not be easy. Greece is better than most people think ( we have a couple of these guys in the Eredivisie and they’re good). We can lose or draw that game, I would not be surprised.

We will still have a way into the Euros via the play offs but again: if we can’t beat Greece than we need to wonder what we want to achieve in those Euros.

Still, I say we win 0-2, with Weghorst and Simons on the score sheet.

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by Jan

Van Nistelrooy’s PSV

PSV has been doing great business this summer. Roger Schmidt’s project wasn’t what was hoped for and as he’s turning heads in Portugal, club legend Ruud van Nistelrooy reluctantly took the reins and is making headlines with his TD John de Jong and new MD Marcel Brands.

Sangarue and Gakpo still wear the PSV colours, Luuk de Jong is back. Guus Til will bring depth and goals, while the goalie issues seems sorted now with Benitez between the sticks.

Conceding Less Goals

This was one of the missions for the summer. Joel Drommel, albeit talented, wasn’t the man for the job (yet). A tad nervous, uncertain and lacking courage with high balls. They found the ideal shot stopper in France. Argentine Walter Benitez was statistically the best goalie in France and his mission is to play CL football and get into the Argentina squad.

PSV has a list of players that left Holland at a young age, only to return to PSV to get games in their pocket and as a result an invite for Oranje. Ki-Jana Hoever wants to do what Donnyel Malen, Jeffrey Bruma and Karim Rekik did before him. The youngest ever Liverpool player in the FA Cup will focus on the right full back spot. The season’s preparation demonstrated his comfort on the ball and his smarts in the build up. His weaknesses? Typically, his defensive abilities, but Ruud van Nistelrooy was quite happy with how Hoever developed in this short time at PSV.

Youth Sensation

Xavi Simons is a brand and a youth sensation. With his blonde, curly hair he became an icon as a kid for Barca and he slowly moved to the big boys’ matches via Paris SG. He realised that he would have a hard time playing week in week out in Paris, so he decided on a loan spell to PSV. The talks between him and the club were such that he actually decided to leave PSG and sign with PSV all the way. Simons wants to get the same status in men’s football as he had in youth football. He’s got all the tricks and never loses sight of the space when in confined spaces. Xavi has superior technique and an eye for the through ball. The only question is: how well is he equipped physically, to play 90 minutes at high intensity, 2 matches per week?

Guaranteed goals

No other active Eredivisie player scored more goals in the Eredivisie than Luuk de Jong. 135 goals. And as they saw in Sevilla and Barcelona, Luuk will score when the service is right. The new PSV skipper also has a tremendous role model function in the squad as everyone who knows him praises him for his professional approach. Another guaranteed goal scorer is Feyenoord’s topscorer from last season, Guus Til. Feyenoord couldn’t make a move as they needed to sell players first. Til didn’t want to wait and signed for four years in Eindhoven, where he hopes to play CL football. The midfielder is not the gifted technician but due to his work rate, depth and tactical discipline, every coach in football loves working with him.

New names

With the signing of Jarrad Branthwaite, PSV has another defensive option. Due to injuries, Van the Man needed more and Marcel Brands lured this tall defender away from Everton, where he signed him previously. Savinho is a player the fans will enjoy more than the tall English centre back. The Brazilian super talent is part of the City Group and asked for a loan spell at PSV. The Eindhoven club still have magic in its name in Brazil, thanks to the stints of Romario, Ronaldo and Alex, among others at the club. Savinho is an Antony like left footed right winger, who will benefit from the long term ankle injury of Madueke.

Tactics

Van Nistelrooy is no Schmidt. Where the German relied on compact organisations and turn-over moments, the former Man U striker is a believer of the Dutch School: possession, pass and move, forward press and attractive and attacking football. PSV will move closer to Ajax and Feyenoord in that way. Ruud used the 4-1-4-1 system a lot at Young PSV and seems to want to play like this with his current squad as well. With the extension of Gutierez, Sangare still on board, Joey Veerman, Guus Til and Xavi Simons, Van has quite some good midfield options to go to. In the pre-season, Van Nistelrooy used Sangare as lone defensive mid and has also played with Veerman next to Sangare and Til as shadow striker. “I like to be able to vary, to keep the opponent on their toes.” In Schmidt’s system, the team would overcrowd the ball and all players would move towards the ball, in order to take possession and quickly break out. In Van’s world, he will keep the players in position as much as possible. This will diminish the risk of not being able to win the ball and having opened up the pitch. Another benefit is, that it doesn’t require the intensity Schmidt demanded. In Schmidt’s system, the wingers played as midfielders and were coming into the space or squeezing inside. In Ruud’s system, the wingers are used as final station in the build up, before the killer pass arrives in the box.

Ruud wants to see one defender more than opposing attackers, at the back. This is usually the central defensive midfielder, as the full backs are needed higher to play triangles with the midfielders and the wingers. Luuk de Jong wants service from the wings and Gakpo and Savinho or Madueke are capable to take on opponents and bring the ball into the danger area.

This season will be really interesting, between PSV and Ajax. I can see Ajax focusing more and more on the CL win, while PSV just wants that title again!

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by Jan

Cup Final: Mario Götze has the keys

When you view the Dutch Cup Final in highlights mode, you may have missed Mario Götze. And still, the 29 year old German was the man leading PSV to victory.

On October 6, 2020 a restaurant owner in Eindhoven tweeted to the world that he spotted World Champion Mario Götze at the PSV Stadium. No one believed him. Why would someone like him, the German wunderkind, want to play in the Eredivisie. But new PSV coach Roger Schmidt was able to convince the match winner of the World Cup 2014 finals and the shadow striker paid the coach back with dividend in the 2022 Cup Final.

PSV scored goals in the ten minutes after the break, to pivot the match in PSV’s benefit. Götze was not overly involved. He got the free kick, which enable Erick Gutierrez to score the 1-1. He chopped Daley Blind out of position and Tadic made the foul of the German, offering the Eindhoven club an opportunity to swing the ball in.

The second goal came after a stray pass from Martinez, which was intercepted by skipper Gakpo, who drove forward and hit the ball with his strong right foot in the near corner. Stekelenburg was blind-sighted by Klaassen after Alvarez went for the tackle a bit too eagerly and Cody Gakpo was able to avoid the Mexican. Götze role? He was the one closing the pass to Gravenberch, and immediately went for pressure on Martinez. He decided to play the ball long. The rest you know: 2-1.

The new Götze at PSV is not the man scoring the goals (that is now more for Zahavi, Gakpo or Manueke). He is also not so much the assist king. Veerman, Doan, again Gakpo or Sangare do well in this domain. Götze is the pre-assist king. He dominated between the two boxes with his vision and technique. He is constantly looking for the free spaces to make sure there is an option available for his team mates and was always the extra man available for a pass. In that central “10” position, he has the freedom to go where he can be of most use. He had the most dribbles versus Ajax, he was fouled most by Ajax and had the most successful passes (31). And where he had his touches explains his role in the team, playing from left back to right winger.

On top of that: he works his butt off. He had 25 duels in the Ajax game and won 12 of them. The last PSV player with this many duels one on one, was Luuk de Jong, in 2019. Schmidt after the Ajax match: “I have to check the stats but I think Mario must have ran 25 kilometers!” When Schmidt told Götze his joke, the former Dortmund star quipped: “Correct, but that was measured after 60 minutes!”.

Thanks to Götze, Alvarez was playing with the invisibility cloak. Götze would take care of the Mexican and would then move forward to press Martinez. A typical Götze move for this match was in the 85th minute. He anticipated better than Davy Klaassen on a on a high ball and then took the ball of Berghuis with a sliding tackle. Two minutes later, he picks up a headed ball by Gravenberch and offers Vertessen a great chance, who hit the post. This playmaker was in the spot light for his ball retention. Because this game needed that.

It is not new that Mario Götze is the key man with his passing and his defensive work. In the Europe League match vs Real Sociedad, he also impressed with his work rate. He ran 4,3 kilometers at “high intensity” as it’s called, which was more than 1/3 of all his running. The highest ever in the history of PSV’s stats driven analyses. His pass accuracy is also amazing: 87,1% of all passes end up with a team mate. Only Erick Gutierrez has a higher rate but he plays the controlling mid role and will play more riskless passes. There is no other attacking mid in the Eredivisie with better stats than Götze.

Götze should not be judged on his goals and assists. He is the oil in the PSV machine. He will add to the build up of PSV but also work hard to break down anything their opponents want to conjure up.

The question now is: where will his new ceiling be? He never made a secret of his ambition to want to win the Champions League. He won’t do that with PSV, most likely. Now Schmidt is leaving, the chances are high that Super Mario will leave as well. He also expressed interest in playing another World Cup. Fair play to him. His contract at PSV goes till 2024 but odds are he will leave before that. His goals will be replaced. But his intelligent “middle ware” will be missed. His work ethics will not be easily replaced.

After the Cup Final, Ten Hag muttered that his team was the only team deserving of the win. Schmidt said the same thing about PSV. The stats demonstrate why both coaches would say this.

Shots and Expected Goals PSV And Ajax

PSV Ajax PSV Ajax
First half 2 3 0.06 1.14
Second half 12 5 1.24 0.34
Total 14 8 1.3 1.48

Ajax led the way in the first half re: expected goals. PSV did so in the second half.

Schmidt said that Ajax didn’t create any chance until Gravenberch scored the 0-1. And Ten Hag claimed – rightfully so – that Ajax had gifted PSV two goals.

PSV had a smart tactical plan. They had played a tough – and losing – match v Leicester City for the Conference Cup and needed a smart plan: they’d play physical looked for the duels, in this way taking the pace off the game and making sure there enough little rest moments in the match.

The whole match took 102 minutes. The pure playing time was only 50 minutes. More than half the full match, the ball was not in play!

This was all PSV: they made 17 fouls in the game, the highest in the Eredivisie since February 2021. And with Ajax players exaggerating their injuries and going along with PSV, the pace was taken out of the game completely. This was all in PSV’s favour. Ajax made almost as many fouls by the way (14).

There were not many longer passing sequences. The PSV passing accuracy was 67% a very low number for the Eindhoven team. PSV was clearly aiming for a chaotic game, with lots of fouls and turnaround moments.

Ten Hag had kept Ajax top scorer Seb Haller out of the starting line up. “I felt this game needed Brobbey,” was his comment. Brobbey had one attempt on goal and had three touches in the box. Disappointing, but when Haller joined the match in the second half, he was not able to offer anything. He had zero opportunities and zero touches in the box.

Sub Ritsu Doan created most chances (4) and Bruma had the most shots on goal (4), while sub Vertessen rattled the post. The better chances in the final stages of the game were for PSV, on the counter.

PSV’s magic formula was to copy what Benfica did. Throw sand in the Ajax machine with little annoying fouls and break their rhythm. Clearly, it worked.

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by Jan

Daley Blind mystery finally solved!

For some, this has been a mystery. For others, it was always crystal clear.

Everyone can see Daley Blind’s weaknesses. You don’t need to be a football expert for this. He lacks pace. He can’t head the ball. He hardly scores or assists. He’s actually too slow for a left back and lacks the duelling power for midfield.

Why is it that all coaches he worked with, all football analysts and ex-players rate him so high? Why won’t Van Gaal or Ten Hag bench him for quicker players? Younger players?

Finally, there is a new statistical model being used which clearly shows in stats why Daley Blind is one of the best players in Europe. (Thanks to VI Pro)

The opening goal of Ajax vs FC Utrecht demonstrates Blind’s value vis a vis this new statistical model. And Blind’s role is key. The Ajax left back gets the ball after a turnaround of possession and his action allows for the pass to Steven Berghuis. He dribbles forward and passes to Tadic. The Serb finds Gravenberch who finds Antony. The little Brazilian scores. In traditional statistics, this goal will be summarized as “assist Gravenberch and goal Antony”. Expected goals and Expected Assists do add some context. These stats show you how likely that Antony goal was. But the role of Blind and Tadic in this move can’t be found in the traditional stats. There would not be a pre-assist even for Daley Blind.

This has “Final third” on the Y and “half opponent” on the X -axis. Name of graph: Successful passes

Daley launches his team mates forward like this an absurd number of times, allowing them to penetrate the box. This visualisation above demonstrates the combi of passes on the opponent’s half into the final third. Blind is a category in itself! Only Feyenoord playmaker Orkun Kökçü comes close.

The traditional stats say something alright, but they miss any context. For instance, a through ball getting a player face to face with the goalie is in these stats comparable with a horizontal pass at the middle line. Expected Assists helps to show which player actually create opportunities. The pass before the final pass was also not really on the radar, until the Expected Threat comes into play.

The aim of the Expected Threat is to add value to players who actually start the attacking move. This idea was launched by Sarah Rudd, who worked for Arsenal in 2011. Karun Singh took this model later and created a popular blog post to demonstrate this and the Athletic took the idea and popularised it.

The Expect Threat Zones. The lighter the block, the better the odds to score.

The idea behind Expected Threat is simple. The closer to the goal of the opponent, the high the chance that a goal is scored in the next 5 moves. Historical data helps to give values to these areas. So they divided the pitch into 192 zones (12 in the width and 16 length-wise). The players who get the ball in those high-value zones are scoring the most points, obviously.

Expected Threat identifies the players who are the most successful in finding the quickest route to a goal. And the scores are basically a compounded score of progression made on the pitch, through passing and dribbling (carry). Crosses are not part of this analysis, because the odds to score from a cross are way lower than playing the ball via pass and move into the box.

This sounds like higher math to some, but this video below will show what is meant. The Blind pass which results in the first Ajax goal.

Expected Threat will compare the starting point of possession, with Blind, to the final stage of this move, which is Tadic taking the ball in the box.

 

Statistically, the chance that a team scores within 5 moves at the spot where Blind gets the ball first, is 1,4%. This means, that only once in 67 times that the ball gets to that starting point, a goal will follow within 5 moves.

However, when Tadic takes the ball in box, the chance of Ajax scoring went up to 12.6%, which means that when a team gets the ball here, 1 out of 8 times, a team scores within the next 5 moves.

So, Blind’s pass has increased Ajax’ scoring changes with 11,1% points. And this gives Blind a value in the Expected Threat stat: 0,111 points.

Another example: the first Ajax goal against PSV. Again, Blind starts the move. This time he has a pass in the left channel towards Gravenberch. He brings the ball from a 0,5% zone to a 3,7% zone. With this pass, Blind collects another set of points to his name in the Expected Threat score. The score is lower than in the Utrecht example, because the zone where Gravenberch gets the ball has a lesser value (as it is further from the opponent’s goal).

The winning goal Ajax scored versus PSV also has Daley as a key component. With two trademark passes: he first plays Tadic in, hard and low. Then another pass towards Danilo. These types of passes demonstrate his value for Ajax.

Analysis the matches vs Utrecht and PSV show that Blind has numerous passes with which he accelerates the play. “I want to make every single pass count. In the match, at practice, always. I try to send a message with my pass, to the player I play the ball too. My pass should inform him what my idea is for his next move. When I play in to Dusan Tadic’s right, I want him to turn that way. It doesn’t always work out, but it’s always my intention.”

Recently, Blind spoke in the Cor Podcast about this: “Delaying the pass is the most important thing. When I get the ball, or anyone gets the ball, the opponent is usually in a particular position. They usually are comfortable. When I pass too quick, I am not doing anything about that positioning. But when I delay my pass, I force the opponent to do something. If they don’t come to block me, I can dribble forward. But if a players steps in, another one of my team mates will become free. I actually force the opponent to tell me what my best next move is.”

The facts show that Blind’s words are more than theory. He usually gets the ball in areas where he is not going to be a threat. Usually, on the left flank. The next step is for him to bring the ball there where a threat can develop. His hard, low pass to Tadic is his trademark, these days. Blind plays a cat and mouse game with his opponent. You act as if you don’t know where to go, you look around, maybe turn towards a less risky team mate in midfield, only to suddenly play the fast ball, skipping midfield, into Tadic or Berghuis.

Animation of Ajax’ build up patterns

Erik Ten Hag actually amended his tactics to fully benefit from Blind’s qualities. He is the first build up station. He usually drops back next to central defenders Martinez and Timber, or he moves way to the left, allowing Gravenberch to confuse the opponent by him dropping back. In both situations, the aim is to trick the opponent into making a press on one of these two. When they do start the press, the space around Tadic becomes wider and this is when Blind will play the ball.

Expected Threat captures this quality in statistics. Blind is the leader of this stat in the Eredivisie, as he was last season too. Last season, in the big competition, the stat leads were Neymar in France, Messi in Spain, Jaden Sancho in Germany and Jack Grealish in England. It’s no surprise that these four players are considered the top and three of the four made a big money move last summer.

This year, Blind shares the #1 position with Leo Messi again (France), Vinicius Junior for La Liga and Trent Alexander-Arnold in England.

This list shows the Expected Threat in passing. Different types of players can do well with this stat. Another Ajax player (Tadic) is second on the list, as a left winger. Ajax’ Timber is on the list as a central defender, while Veerman (these are his Heerenveen stats) and Kökçü are more playmakers.

There is a separate stat Expected Threats in Dribbles. Cody Gakpo does really well in that overview and that will also play a role regarding the interest from Liverpool, Man City and Bayern Munich in signing the lanky PSV star.

Stats do not tell the full story of course. One aspect that is not taken into account in the Expected Threat stat is the position of the opponent. Only the start and end position of the move are used and not how many opponent players are taken out of the game by the pass. In this way, teams that dominate on the opponent’s half will always score higher in this stat than counter-attacking teams.

But, this does give us a very objective and measurable reason why Daley Blind is revered by the football experts and that he fully deserves the title of the King of the Pass before the Pass….

I’m sure some of you will start to comment like crazy now….

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by Jan

Steven Berghuis: European Top!

Trust me, I didn’t write this post after Ajax – Besiktas. I started this post a day before. But Berghuis’ goal and assist do carry weight of course, considering today’s topic.

This is also not to keep on hammering home a point. This article was in Voetbal International this weekend and it seems only fair to bring this to your attention. As I know this blog has a number of Berghuis fans and Berghuis haters.

Only a month ago, Davy Klaassen position as Ajax’ #10 seemed not open for debate. Mr 1-0, as he is called, seemed to cruise in that role and last season he got 12 goals and 2 assists for his club, as midfielder.

And yes, Kudus and Berghuis could also play the #10 role, but Klaassen wouldn’t be easy to replace.

Berghuis was signed as a right winger, as alternative for Antony. And friend and foe knew, that was going to be a hell of a competition for Berghuis.

In the 3rd Eredivisie match vs Vitesse, Berghuis was even benched and he saw the Brazilian mercurial winger explode, scoring 3 assists.

Ten Hag did use Berghuis in that match, but as sub for the #10 position. Ten Hag: “I said it before, we have to start the competition while we are still trying to gel the team together. We have several players for the #10 role but they’re all a bit different in their execution. I will keep on trying things out when we can, because we need to be as flexible as possible. This particular move worked well and I might try this more often. But it takes time for players to get used to each others moves and patterns. But good players always find a way to play together.”

After the international break, with Berghuis in a key role as a winger, Klaassen returned with a slight injury and the former Feyenoord captain was placed in the #10 role again. Against PEC Zwolle, he had two assists. In the Sporing Lisbon game he scored his first goal and created several chances. Against Cambuur he scored and assisted and versus Fortuna Sittard he scored as well while creating two goals against FC Groningen.

And thus, the discussion started: does Klaassen deserve a protected role? Ten Hag: “No one has a protected role in our team. Davy is a starter, yes, but we have many. We simply look at form and fitness. But we also check what the match needs and what the opponents’ strengths and weaknesses are.” Is Ten Hag able to keep all his players happy? “That is the job of a coach. You don’t control that, 100% but you have to manage it anyway. The team is always more important than the individual. Every player needs to realise this.”

The Berghuis stats are imposing. He was involved in 8 goals in the Eredivisie this season. The only one bettering him is team mate and captain Dusan Tadic, who was involved 9 times. Bryan Linssen (Feyenoord) and Seb Haller are third.  Berghuis created 16 chances for team mates. Tadic, Veerman (Heerenveen), Sinisterra (Feyenoord), Wittek (Vitesse) and Gakpo (PSV) are the only ones doing better than Berghuis.

But when we look at his previous seasons in the Eredivisie, Berghuis appears to be a guarantee for hoals. Since he came back from Watford in 2016, there was no player in Holland with more goals (72) than him. Linssen has 64 goals and Tadic has 57 since that time. The latter played less game though. There is also no player with more assists than Berghuis: 54 in 156 matches, followed by Ziyech and Tadic.

Lets look at Europe now. The big Five competitions and the Dutch Eredivisie. Since the 2016/17 season, Thomas Muller is the master assist king: 76 assists in 161 matches. Kevin de Bruyne is second with 68 assists in 155 games, and Messi has 64 in 174 games. Berghuis is fourth, with 54 in 156 matches. Fifth on the list is Papu Gomez (Atalanta and Sevilla) with 50 assists in 174 games.

 

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by Jan

Daley best player of the Season

Well my friends… the season is over. The Dutch Federation and government will not allow the season to be finished. There will be no events or gatherings until Sept 1. Which means next season will start on Sept 1, not sooner.

This results in massive headaches, I’m sure. Tomorrow, the KNVB will present their plan, how to determine the title winner, which clubs will be relegated, which clubs will play European, etc etc.

The German competition (and others) will probably continue, mainly due to the TV funds they need. Fox in The Netherlands have paid all the clubs, so there is no financial loss (apart from ticket sales), whereas in Germany and other nations, the TV money is only going to be paid if the season is finalised. Hence the plans to finish seasons without fans on the stands.

It’s a disappointing end of this exciting season.

This is the best eleven of the Eredivisie, according to the AD Sports newspaper….

Keeper: André Onana (Ajax)

Onana the invincible. The weird antics from his early days at Ajax are over. His panther like reflexes are still there. His best save? He did really well stopping a certain goal by ADO striker Michiel Kramer, with his foot.

Right back: Denzel Dumfries (PSV)

The fact that Dumfries is the top scorer behind Donyell Malen says enough. He is the perfect captain of this PSV: intelligent, funny and down-to-Earth. Always hardworking, even if he is not the most skilled player, and scoring goals and assists.

Right central defender: Sebastian Holmén (Willem II)

The Swedish international could be the twin brother of Angelino, who would have been in this team last season, as left back at PSV. This Holmen is a real defender though, and was key for Willem II’s success this season.

Left central defender: Daley Blind (Ajax)

Blind doesn’t want to be on the foreground and may have been in the news a bit negatively after his heart issues. He gets better and better every season and was the best Eredivisie player by a mile before his heart problems. With his special weapon, the forward pass.

Left back: Owen Wijndal (AZ)

He might have been the surprise for some, in the surprise team of the season, but experts have seen him coming and this lad should be mentioned in the same breath as Boadu and Stengs as gems.

Right mid: Joey Veerman (sc Heerenveen)

Veerman is a player who seemed to remain a talent all his life. The Volendam born and raised player blossomed under coach Wim Jonk and demonstrates his quality at Heerenveen now. He sees opening and passes no one else sees and created the most chances in the Eredivisie (even ahead of Berghuis and Ziyech). Feyenoord is courting the youngster.

Attacking mid: Hakim Ziyech (Ajax)

The most exciting player in the Eredivisie. Whether coming from the right wing, or playing as playmaker on “10”. We have seen the last of him this season, the wizard is off to Stamford Bridge to impress the English football fans.

Left mid: Orkun Kökçü (Feyenoord)

Every season top talents come into the fold, but only a small percentage will reach the top. IT seems Kokcu is one of them. He’s only 18 years old, but a modern playmaker. Not your classic static number 10 but an alrounder, who works, tackles, makes dirty yards and reads the game well. Arsenal is whispered to prepare an offer.

Right winger: Steven Berghuis (Feyenoord)

Probably the only attacking player to compete with Ziyech as the most exciting player. The Feyenoord captain has tremendous stats this season, but he can be as inconsistent as his personality. Once he manages his sudden bursts of aggression, he can be a key player for Oranje and for coach Dick Advocaat’s aim to win the title next season with Feyenoord.

Striker: Donyell Malen (PSV)

Deserves his selection based on his first half. The super quick PSV forward hasn’t kicked a ball in 2020. Still, he is only 4 goals behind top scorers Berghuis and Cyriel Dessers.

Left winger: Chidera Ejuke (sc Heerenveen)

This dribble king of Heerenveen tends to have blinders on at times, but seeing him play is an adventure in itself. This unpolished diamond gives colour to the Eredivisie. Lets hope he stays another season.

Coach: Dick Advocaat (Feyenoord)

There are people who believe the impact of a coach is limited. These people should look at Feyenoord before and after Dick. With Advocaat, hope and self belief returned to De Kuip

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