A lot of Dutch football fans will be torn. A lot of Dutch Moroccans as well. Morocco is a popular footballing nation in the Netherlands, despite some of the anti Moroccan youth noises. Lots of Moroccan players were developed in the Netherlands, in the past decades. Some decided to play for Oranje, some decided to play for Morocco.
There will always be a national debate in Holland about this topic. Some claim the players who were developed in the Netherlands should pick the Dutch NT , while others believe we should allow these players the freedom of choice.
I am of the latter category. Just to tickle your memory, players like Afellay, Boulahrouz, El Ghazi, Otman Bakkal and Dries Boussata all picked Oranje. Hakim Ziyech, Sofyan Amrabat, Nous Mazraoui and El Ahmadi decided to go with the ancestral nation.
Recently, the Atlas Lions have become true contenders (remember last WC in Qatar) and are currently sitting in the top 10 of the FIFA ranking.
Along with Oranje. Which means, this is the only clash between top 10 teams this early in the WC. Where Argentina seemingly has the easy route, the Dutch (and Morocco) are in the same leg as France, Brazil and Spain. Ah well….
This match could and should have been a quarter or semi, or…. But alas. It’s what it is. Holland will go home. Or Morocco will go home.
No more Summerville. Or no more Saibari. Take your pick.
So what to expect? I think Morocco is a huge opponent for us to play. We haven’t beaten a top team since Koeman returned from his exploits elsewhere so lets see what we can expect.
Transition from Defence to Attack
No nation has been more direct than Morocco. This is defined as an attack started on their own half and and 50% of the moves need to be vertical towards the opponents goal and the move needs to end with a shot on goal or a touch in the opposing box.
Morocco does this often and quick. The technically skilled players simply know when to accelerate. Their preferred option is to play short passes galore and then an acceleration through a longer deep ball into space.
Ismael Saibari, the Belgian PSV midfielder – on his way to Bayern – makes ample runs in behind, El Kaabi did it often versus Haiti and Hakimi, well, he does it all the time. Marathon man Hakimi, playing right back, can be considered Morocco’s most dangerous attacker!
Oranje will have to be vigilant on our left side of the pitch where both Diaz and Hakimi like to create havoc. Van de Ven and Gakpo need some good communication, as you don’t want Gakpo to become a full back. Will Koeman switch the system, to strengthen that left side? We will need Mickey’s speed, but we might also need more grit and football intelligence there….
Attacking
Morocco is able to mix up the counter attacking style with possession based football. The semi finalist of 2022 is inspired by Enrique’s PSG tactics, building up from a firm structure, but with multiple positioning changes.
They love to play in a 3-2-5 shape and the 5 on top love to mix and match their roles. They love finding space between the lines and their individual skills result in surprisingly low loss-of-possession stats.
Morocco has talented central midfielders but they prefer to find space on the flanks for their build up. It’s safer for them and they still get the results. so why not? Saibari and Ounahi do this on the left flank a lot, while Hakimi and Diaz change position often on the right. Man marking will simply not work. Their drifting about will eventually mean one of them gets into space and you’re done.
Building up, Morocco prefers the right flank. Koeman knows why: “Their star man and playmaker is basically their right full back.”
Hakimi is a phenomenon. He creates the most chances this tournament (11) and has the most attempts on goal (10), with Saibari. Koeman’s big headache is: how do we stop Hakimi?
As said, using Gakpo for this job is not smart. The lanky Liverpool winger is not a defender and will at some point lose Hakimi. That is what usually happens when forwards need to track back. This would also incapacitate our left wing in an attacking sense, so not smart.
Koeman will go for a 5 at the back and use Frenkie as additional lock on the door. I expect Reijnders and Gravenberch to sit in front of the five defenders and than we’ll find 3 quick forwards who will have to provide the threat to Morocco’s defence. Probably Gakpo, Brobbey and Summerville.
Frenkie has the skills to sacrifice himself for the team, as his defending, tackling, running and reading of the game is superior. Plus, he has played Hakimi several times at club level and knows him best.
Koeman knows his team needs to defend better than we did versus Sweden: “We need to be positioning well, be compact and be alert without the ball.”
Ancelotti had to fix the Brazilian shape at one of the dehydration commercial breaks, and pushed Casimero in the “Frenkie role” as fifth defender, allowing the backs to cover the flanks.
Transition from Defence to Attack
Their strength moving forward is actually their weakness in reverse, when they need to defend. Hakimi is never playing right back and there will be spaces for Gakpo to explore. Just like in the Sweden game, we can get him one v one if we play it right. In the Brazil game, Vinicius was not tasked with tracking back and he paid it back to his coach by scoring on the counter.
Defending
In comparison to Qtar 2022, Morocco defends high up the pitch now. The current coach decides to push up more aggressive. The 4-1-4-1 has made way for a proper 4-4-2 with the attacking mid next to their striker. Only three teams were able to repossess the ball higher on the pitch than Morocco but they do fold back at times to make the field smaller.
A key role is for Saibari, him again, who can play like a striker, but also think like a midfielder. He is great at blocking passing lines and blocking his opponent in building up. Koeman should not play with a box midfield this time around as these Moroccan players will be capable of blocking the passing lines to Frenkie and Gravenberch.
Brazil showed that a 4-3-3 in possession with a deep 6 and two higher midfielders can work wonders, to explore the space behind their midfield. Another remarkable aspect, Morocco started to look tired after 70 minutes, which opened up the pitch even more.
Morocco’s biggest weakness is their defending on the flanks. In particular, their left flank is vulnerable. Brazil, Scotland and Haiti did not have the players to hurt them there, but we have Dumfries and Summerville (Malen).
Aerially, Holland also has more strength. Their best header of the ball (Aguerd) is not available and only three nations won less headers than Morocco. Dead ball moments can be food and drink for JP van Hecke and Virgil.
Conclusion
Morocco is a dynamic and attractive side with lots of individual qualities. We will need to defend better, if we want to progress. But, on the other hand. Morocco will give away chances and with a good tactical plan, we should be able to pounce via our flanks (Dumfries, Gakpo, Summerville, Reijnders) and via set pieces.
I predict a 3-1 win for the Dutch: Gakpo, Summerville and Reijnders on the score sheet.
And from all of us: best wishes to Cody Gakpo and family in these trying times….
Inspired by: Pieter Zwart, VI Pro
Update from Johan on Gakpo
The football world has rallied around Gakpo after he and his partner, Noa van der Bij, announced the devastating loss of their unborn son, Elijah Raphael Gakpo. The couple shared the heartbreaking news on social media, asking for privacy as they grieve during this incredibly difficult time.
Gakpo has received messages of support from teammates, clubs and fans across the world. Despite the tragedy, he has decided to remain with the national team. Everyone at Dutch Soccer Site sends their sincere condolences to Cody, Noa and their family.
Gakpo is very religious, always praying together with the team, so the impact can be huge on the team. Maybe it would be good from Koeman to bench Gakpo, put Summerville on the left and Malen on the right. Summerville did very well defending, so he can take up the battle against Hakimi.
Morocco likes to start fast, catching opponent while they still finding their feet. Holland we should circulate the ball and NOT allow them to dictate the rhythm and create organized panic and chaos. Move them around like what they did Vs Japan. But all these are by no means simple to execute, it takes good understanding and spatial distance between the players to manage any transition or counter by Morocco.
I see Morocco similar to Japan, fast, nifty players, though they shade Japan in terms of individual talents in Hakimi and Ibrahim Diaz.
Morocco expansive, open play could actually lead to them being counter, something which we have to transition quickly if any moment presents itself.
Also, the team tires a lot in the second half due to their high octane play, something which Holland can exploit with pacey substitutes.
Koeman and staff will have their work cut out for this matchup. Just very dangerous an opponent which could deliver us the knockout blow in round32. I pray it won’t happen and would want the euphoria and oranje wave to continue to sweep thru the tournament. We can all only pray hard.
Thanks Jan! Really excellent write up, and gives me real confidence going into this game versus Morocco, a game I agree is happening far too early in the tournament. If only we can get Koeman to heed your advice!
And so devastated for Gakpo. Hopefully he will lean into his faith at this tragic time. Having been through something similar myself years ago, you feel so helpless. It may actually be the best thing for him to go forward with the match and feel like he can make a positive impact in that regard on something he can control.
Praying for him and his family!
It’s really sad for him. That’s incredibly difficult news to receive, especially in the middle of a tournament.
For us, he has always been the ultimate professional and someone who consistently stepped up for the team in the biggest tournaments. Like you said, it might actually be better for him to play the match and focus on the game. It gives him something else to concentrate on instead of dwelling on something that’s completely out of his control.
For sure, these are two QF level teams, in terms of preparation, but the competition the Dutch played in their group has them ready to play this match. They were better than Japan, and decisively beat a decent Swedish team, and they are ready for a quality team like Morroco. If they have to play Morroco in one of the first two games. A win over a good team this early gives them alot of momentum, and—if not easy—a clear path to the QF’s.
Superb analysis, Jan. Morocco playing with a back three and the wingbacks pushed up, should allow the Dutch good opportunities to attack from where they have been stronges, , playing it wide and back into Brobbey crashing down the middle. But, we’ll see. If you and VI know this, Morroco will know it. If you have a moment, do you have any thoughts on what Morroco might do to adapt to the what they have seen from Oranje’s play so far?
I hope it is Summerville who starts on the right. He can run at and break down a defense better than Malen, either wide or coming through the middle. Plus, he and Gravenberch have been combining so well on the right side.
If Koeman wants to make a move later in the game to raise pace or attack, I hope he’ll consider Lang. Just the little he played against Tunisia showed how dangerous he can be.
As for Gakpo (sigh), the comments by JB and Kevin have nailed it.
I think Morocco will respect Oranje but not too much. They might play a tad more compact than normal and try to get us on the break. Our weakness: breaking down compact low blocks. Morocco will know this.
The circumstances/weather in Mexico do favour Morocco, I feel.
This is another tricky game for us. With the talent we have, we can put away Morocco. Not easy, but doable. The problem is that as I have said multiple times, I just don’t trust our defense and Koeman’s strategy and lineups. That high defensive line is a liability. Van Dijk can’t be running full speed and bursting his lungs whenever Morocco is on the attack. Our issues are fixable, but we don’t fix them. For Koeman it is live and die by the plan. We need a defensive midfielder to plug the gap in that defense.
We need quick transitions and service to Brobbey to win this game. Reijnders have to keep finding the forward line. Gravenberch has to boss the midfield. Not play in spurts. Hakimi is the true danger man and may need to be double teamed at times. I’m not sure Ake can control him for 90+ mins. Frenkie needs to be more aggressive playing in the 8 or 10 position. Not bringing balls from the back line. I really do not wanna see Malen in the starting line up. I have the most sympathy for Gakpo. I hope he can be effective despite the circumstances. No clumsy tackles. Focus on corners and free kicks. Finish the game in regulation time. No penalties please. I just don’t want to go thru that at all.
As good as they are, Morocco is leaky in the back. They also leave acres of space. They rely on their athleticism to bail them out. We need to exploit that and capitalize on our chances. Score early to settle the nerves of the team and gain confidence. This should have been a quarter or semi final game, but here we are. The players attitudes will and the lineup with tell me a lot. If these guys are playing their hearts out, chasing and wining every 50/50 ball, be physical, and play forward passes and connect, then we progress. But if I see this lackadaisical, side to side slow passing, and casual attitude, then we could be in trouble.
Anyways, all the best tomorrow. We shall see.
Agree Forza! I think we need to be crisp and disciplined in our passing and dictate the tempo at which we want the game played. Morocco has faced Brazil, against whom they played a fairly even match statistically (including in possession, shots and passing accuracy). They scored first and Brazil tied it up about 10 minutes later, and neither team scored in the second half. Against Scotland, they scored at the very outset of the game, kept about 60% possession and pretty much doubled the Scots’ statistical output. Finally, against Haiti, they played a very open back-and-forth match where Haiti took the lead twice, Morocco responded twice and then put it away with two further goals late in the contest. Statistically they were even more dominant against Haiti despite conceding twice. I imagine they will play us more like they did Brazil, where possession is more even and they look to attack quickly when regaining the ball. This may be one of those “Every disadvantage has its advantage” types of matches that JC talked about, where we can use their strength against them and really launch a full onslaught on Hakimi’s side. He’s played every minute of every match so far and we need to punish Morocco every chance we get when he comes forward!
Incidentally, those late teens / early 20s Dortmund teams were unbelievably loaded!
Matchday, a biggy against Morocco as Jan wrote way to early, but maybe the perfect preparation for big things to come.
Today I am cheering against Saibari ( who plays at my team PSV) the guy is lethal. Very dangereous player. Have a look at his Champions League goal against Bayern Munich: https://youtu.be/41iTM27TZcE?si=ItFq0Fr7U9ZF3sR5&t=88
We can beat them, the spirit is good, you have to believe and we all see us growing in the tournament. Everybody was complaining about lack of goals, we made 10 in just 3 games, we destroyed Sweden….
Tonight (my time) it will be a 2-1 victory, HUP HOLLAND HUP
There is something that I would like to point out in the big picture scheme of things. Maybe Jan/Johan can do a deeper article about it. Regardless of the outcome of today’s match, if they can keep this up, Morocco is now transitioning to becoming a contender team. I don’t really see them as that African or Asian side that has a nice run and disappears. They have a large population and players in Europe to draw from, and looks like they have built their national team to be a solid unit. It doesn’t seem that any top Moroccan player is now going to go to the Netherlands or France or Germany or Spain without a strong recruitment fight from the Moroccan federation. Just looking at the current teams, I only see Lamine Yamal and Brahim Diaz for Spain.
I’m not sure if others can replicate this successfully, but if Egypt, Algeria, and other African teams like Senegal, Ghana, Cote d Ivoire, Nigeria etc do this, then there maybe a gradual shift.