Oranje – Morocco: coming too early….

A lot of Dutch football fans will be torn. A lot of Dutch Moroccans as well. Morocco is a popular footballing nation in the Netherlands, despite some of the anti Moroccan youth noises. Lots of Moroccan players were developed in the Netherlands, in the past decades. Some decided to play for Oranje, some decided to play for Morocco.

There will always be a national debate in Holland about this topic. Some claim the players who were developed in the Netherlands should pick the Dutch NT , while others believe we should allow these players the freedom of choice.

I am of the latter category. Just to tickle your memory, players like Afellay, Boulahrouz, El Ghazi, Otman Bakkal and Dries Boussata all picked Oranje. Hakim Ziyech, Sofyan Amrabat, Nous Mazraoui and El Ahmadi decided to go with the ancestral nation.

 

 

 

Recently, the Atlas Lions have become true contenders (remember last WC in Qatar) and are currently sitting in the top 10 of the FIFA ranking.

Along with Oranje. Which means, this is the only clash between top 10 teams this early in the WC. Where Argentina seemingly has the easy route, the Dutch (and Morocco) are in the same leg as France, Brazil and Spain. Ah well….

This match could and should have been a quarter or semi, or…. But alas. It’s what it is. Holland will go home. Or Morocco will go home.

No more Summerville. Or no more Saibari. Take your pick.

So what to expect? I think Morocco is a huge opponent for us to play. We haven’t beaten a top team since Koeman returned from his exploits elsewhere so lets see what we can expect.

Transition from Defence to Attack

No nation has been more direct than Morocco. This is defined as an attack started on their own half and and 50% of the moves need to be vertical towards the opponents goal and the move needs to end with a shot on goal or a touch in the opposing box.

Morocco does this often and quick. The technically skilled players simply know when to accelerate. Their preferred option is to play short passes galore and then an acceleration through a longer deep ball into space.

Ismael Saibari, the Belgian PSV midfielder –  on his way to Bayern – makes ample runs in behind, El Kaabi did it often versus Haiti and Hakimi, well, he does it all the time. Marathon man Hakimi, playing right back, can be considered Morocco’s most dangerous attacker!

Oranje will have to be vigilant on our left side of the pitch where both Diaz and Hakimi like to create havoc. Van de Ven and Gakpo need some good communication, as you don’t want Gakpo to become a full back. Will Koeman switch the system, to strengthen that left side? We will need Mickey’s speed, but we might also need more grit and football intelligence there….

Attacking

Morocco is able to mix up the counter attacking style with possession based football. The semi finalist of 2022 is inspired by Enrique’s PSG tactics, building up from a firm structure, but with multiple positioning changes.

They love to play in a 3-2-5 shape and the 5 on top love to mix and match their roles. They love finding space between the lines and their individual skills result in surprisingly low loss-of-possession stats.

Morocco has talented central midfielders but they prefer to find space on the flanks for their build up. It’s safer for them and they still get the results. so why not? Saibari and Ounahi do this on the left flank a lot, while Hakimi and Diaz change position often on the right. Man marking will simply not work. Their drifting about will eventually mean one of them gets into space and you’re done.

Building up, Morocco prefers the right flank. Koeman knows why: “Their star man and playmaker is basically their right full back.”

Hakimi is a phenomenon. He creates the most chances this tournament (11) and has the most attempts on goal (10), with Saibari. Koeman’s big headache is: how do we stop Hakimi?

As said, using Gakpo for this job is not smart. The lanky Liverpool winger is not a defender and will at some point lose Hakimi. That is what usually happens when forwards need to track back. This would also incapacitate our left wing in an attacking sense, so not smart.

Koeman will go for a 5 at the back and use Frenkie as additional lock on the door. I expect Reijnders and Gravenberch to sit in front of the five defenders and than we’ll find 3 quick forwards who will have to provide the threat to Morocco’s defence. Probably Gakpo, Brobbey and Summerville.

Frenkie has the skills to sacrifice himself for the team, as his defending, tackling, running and reading of the game is superior. Plus, he has played Hakimi several times at club level and knows him best.

Koeman knows his team needs to defend better than we did versus Sweden: “We need to be positioning well, be compact and be alert without the ball.”
Ancelotti had to fix the Brazilian shape at one of the dehydration commercial breaks, and pushed Casimero in the “Frenkie role” as fifth defender, allowing the backs to cover the flanks.

Transition from Defence to Attack

Their strength moving forward is actually their weakness in reverse, when they need to defend. Hakimi is never playing right back and there will be spaces for Gakpo to explore. Just like in the Sweden game, we can get him one v one if we play it right. In the Brazil game, Vinicius was not tasked with tracking back and he paid it back to his coach by scoring on the counter.

Defending

In comparison to Qtar 2022, Morocco defends high up the pitch now. The current coach decides to push up more aggressive. The 4-1-4-1 has made way for a proper 4-4-2 with the attacking mid next to their striker. Only three teams were able to repossess the ball higher on the pitch than Morocco but they do fold back at times to make the field smaller.

A key role is for Saibari, him again, who can play like a striker, but also think like a midfielder. He is great at blocking passing lines and blocking his opponent in building up. Koeman should not play with a box midfield this time around as these Moroccan players will be capable of blocking the passing lines to Frenkie and Gravenberch.

Brazil showed that a 4-3-3 in possession with a deep 6 and two higher midfielders can work wonders, to explore the space behind their midfield. Another remarkable aspect, Morocco started to look tired after 70 minutes, which opened up the pitch even more.

Morocco’s biggest weakness is their defending on the flanks. In particular, their left flank is vulnerable. Brazil, Scotland and Haiti did not have the players to hurt them there, but we have Dumfries and Summerville (Malen).

Aerially, Holland also has more strength. Their best header of the ball (Aguerd) is not available and only three nations won less headers than Morocco. Dead ball moments can be food and drink for JP van Hecke and Virgil.

Conclusion

Morocco is a dynamic and attractive side with lots of individual qualities. We will need to defend better, if we want to progress. But, on the other hand. Morocco will give away chances and with a good tactical plan, we should be able to pounce via our flanks (Dumfries, Gakpo, Summerville, Reijnders) and via set pieces.

I predict a 3-1 win for the Dutch: Gakpo, Summerville and Reijnders on the score sheet.

And from all of us: best wishes to Cody Gakpo and family in these trying times….

Inspired by: Pieter Zwart, VI Pro

Update from Johan on Gakpo

The football world has rallied around Gakpo after he and his partner, Noa van der Bij, announced the devastating loss of their unborn son, Elijah Raphael Gakpo. The couple shared the heartbreaking news on social media, asking for privacy as they grieve during this incredibly difficult time.

Gakpo has received messages of support from teammates, clubs and fans across the world. Despite the tragedy, he has decided to remain with the national team. Everyone at Dutch Soccer Site sends their sincere condolences to Cody, Noa and their family.

Gakpo is very religious, always praying together with the team, so the impact can be huge on the team. Maybe it would be good from Koeman to bench Gakpo, put Summerville on the left and Malen on the right. Summerville did very well defending, so he can take up the battle against Hakimi.