Orange Sweets: what to expect?

One has to keep on pushing the creative juices to come up with fun titles….

The confrontation this weekend between The Netherlands and Sweden will be an interesting one: the Dutch have their world class players at the back, and the more sub-top players on top. The Swedes have it the other way around: their top class acts are their forwards and their defensive line is  considered sub-par.

Interesting match up. The Swedes had serious difficulties getting to the 2026 World Cup, conceding 24 goals in 12 matches. They didn’t win a single game until the play off matches and they basically limped into this tournament.

The question will be: will Isak and Gyokeres score more than their leaky defence will concede?

New coach Graham Potter has the answers, for now. The English coach is known for his neat positioning play, but abandoned his vision with this squad. His tactical approach resulted in more wins (3) than defeats (2).

In the play-off games, Potters team had 30% possession but they did create the better chances. And this was also visible in their rout against Tunesia. The Swedes never pressed high, never used the high block but basically folded back to their own third, to absorb pressure and then pounce.

The 5-3-2 of Sweden will give Holland more space to operate in than the Japan set up. The three midfielders will probably be easily pushed from side to side, chasing the ball and it will be hard for them to defend the spaces.

The key thing for Oranje, will be to go from side to side swiftly. The change of sides will allow the full backs (wing backs?) to penetrate and to play in the midfielder/forwards in the half spaces.

Greece played Sweden in this way, and the Swedes had it tough. Their central defenders are not comfortable pushing high up or drifting into midfield, they’re quite static and simply put, not very good.

Here you go: Gyokeres gets the ball, Isak is already on his bike

If Koeman can get the left and right winger (Gakpo and Summerville? ) to press the Swedish backs, Dumfries and Van de Ven (or whoever plays) will have the space to penetrate on the inside as Sweden won’t have logical options to deal with them.

Norway demonstrated this recently in a friendly with Sweden.

Despite the length in their team, Sweden does remarkably bad at set pieces. Their goalie is clearly not comfortable with crosses into the box and Sweden concedes too many goals from these dead ball situations.

The Swedish attacking plans are similar to what we saw with Mourinho’s Inter Milan in 2010 or the Dutch NT in 2014: a block of defenders, when taking possession of the ball, the first pass is forward to Gyokeres, who has the strength to hold of defenders and turn, using his body, to launch the nimble Alex Isak into space.

Isak always lurking

If Oranje can stop these passing into Gyokeres or stop him from playing, we will have taken away one of their main weapons.

Isak is a striker of world class and he will be a danger. He moves in an unpredictable way, and he is quick and very skilful.

We will need top notch communication to make sure we can stop him, as he will always aim to stay away from Virgil.

Even though Sweden plays with five at the back, their approach is not the same as Japan’s. For starters, Sweden hardly plays forward balls through the centre. Only Qatar has played less forward passes through the middle of the pitch. Japan attacked us with two 10s in midfield and one deep striker ( Ueda). Sweden plays with two deep forwards and 3 midfielders behind them and two wide backs.

Sweden’s “Arsenal” tactics

If we play with three central defenders, with Frenkie as the third, we might get him in trouble, as he is not a true man marker. Duels with Gyokeres will not be on the top of his wish list. Also, three defenders versus two attackers can also result in communication break downs (who does what when?).

I will repeat my thoughts, that Oranje is best of playing a 4-4-2 concept. Five defenders is not really the solution for us, and with 4-3-3 or any variation means that our central defenders might be isolated versus their forwards.

I’d play Gakpo as left midfielder to force Sweden to build up on their left side, which is their weaker build up side. Gakpo and Vd Ven will have to deal with blocking the Swedish right channel, leaving either Frenkie or Ryan to be the lock on our door in midfield.

Sweden has adopted the Arsenal corner strategy, pushing people into the goal area, and playing in swinging corners.

Before Japan, Koeman said: “They defend their back line with 3 players, which means we need to keep the field wide with our wingers/backs. That is where the space is. When we gain possession, we need to play forward as soon as possible.”

Lots of space to defend

This will be the same for the Sweden game, I feel. The Swedes are even more vulnerable as their central defenders do not press up.

I do hope Koeman will refrain from bringing slow players when we need to counter attack. Koopmeiners and Memphis are not the players needed in those cases. If we can control Sweden’s strikers, we will have a very good chance to win this game.

My prediction: 3-0 for Oranje.  Gakpo scores first, then Malen (finally) and then Summerville again. Japan will beat Tunesia and most likely Sweden too, so I see Sweden finishing third in the group.