Oranje’s weakness in full view

The Netherlands national team seems to be on a roll, most likely winning the group and booking their tickets for the WC2026.

However, a closer look at the latest disappointing match versus Poland shows that the Dutch weaknesses are still there, zero improvement, and doesn’t make for high expectations going into the World Cup in 7 months time.

Full disclosure: I am one of those people that believe we have enough quality in terms of players to be one of the potential winners of that sought after Cup. We have players on the payroll of some of the biggest clubs in Europe.

But somehow, Koeman can’t seem to make it click. Yes, we had two pretty decent games versus Spain (we didn’t win though) but the WC Qualification games were pretty low standard and the only reason we top the group is because the group we’re in is weak and our main competitor lost a game they shouldn’t have (Poland).

What about some ambition

So, as one of the contenders for the title (self proclaimed) you’d expect the Dutch to demonstrate their ambition in a game that started in a festive stadium. Finland had just lost their match versus Malta (Huh!?) which meant Holland and Poland were both virtually qualified for a play-off or direct flight to the West. Should Oranje lose versus Lithuania and should Poland beat Malta with 13 goals difference (or more) our direct ticket will be in jeopardy.

I was a bit in shock watching them play. I was convinced the mediocre games from the last window, in combination with the proximity of that WC ticket and the fact that Finland lost would turn this game into a fiesta of football, but it was very tough to watch this.

On the Dutch TV, analyst Rafael van der Vaart even decided to leave the studio during the 2nd half to go home! ( note: he was actually having food poisoning, but maybe it was football poisoning).

But from the first couple of minutes it was clear that Oranje had serious issues with their opponent, and this is why.

Tactical Mismatch

Poland plays a 3-4- and Koeman prefers the 4-2-3-1. This mismatch has given Koeman headaches before and again, he is not able to deal with it. Whenever Poland has proper ball possession, they attack with 5, while Holland has 4 defenders to deal with it.

This means Poland can find the free man all the time. Should Frenkie or Ryan drop deep, we get a more even balanced situation, same if one of the wingers tracks back.

But from the start it is clear that Koeman wants Gakpo and Malen to remain high up on the pitch and wants the backs to deal with the wingbacks.

The result is that both Geertruida and Van de Ven need to deal with two opponents at times, and need to choose. Below you can see it clearly.

Every time Poland reaches their wingbacks, Oranje’s problems are clear to see. In the 2nd minute of the game, Poland gets a 100% chance as a result of this situation.

Below you can see that Van de Ven isn’t close enough to Cash and Geertuida needs to deal with two players.

It is easy to blame Geertruida for the chance but he has to deal with two opponents. Cash ends up being Poland’s free man and he is usually not the guy you want to allow to cross the ball in. Below you can see it again.

Positioning and communication

Poland’s goal is not the result of this, however, but the result of bad positioning in the turn around. In the 42nd minute, we have 6 players in front of the ball but our defenders have not pushed up to close the distances.

Timber and Virgil aren’t even in the shot below! We have enough players in our rest defence but they’re too wide, there is too much space for Poland to play through. And they do!

Timber loses the duel with Lewandowski, Van Dijk is yards behind the last line and breaks the off-side while Gravenberch doesn’t pick the runner Kaminski up.

Geertruida is also asleep and Verbruggen runs out of his area, only to realise he shouldn’t and drops back giving Kaminski the control over the situation: 1-0.

Early in the second half, a good move by Gakpo creates the 1-1, scored by Memphis who was sloppy but at least got himself at the right spot, like a true ball magnet for the 1-1.

But right after the equaliser, Poland creates two big opportunities and in both cases Geertruida has to deal with multiple opponents.

Koeman could have and should have dealt with this during the break and Virgil and Frenkie are players you expect to sort this out on the pitch. But no!

And again!

It happens to Mickey Van de Ven as well on the other side.

It’s only after the debilitating flare break, that Oranje starts to play a bit more compact with Malen and Gakpo playing more closely to the Polish wingbacks. As a result, Poland is less threatening and as Oranje also starts to be less sloppy in possession, the Polish threat diminished.

Poland had more attempts on goal and a higher xG, which makes it clear that good players and a coach with a great playing career is not enough to impress at the World Cup. We need to work hard on our tactical plans, our execution, our creativity and grit.

I’m sure we’ll win against Lithuania and should we walk of the pitch 5-o, I expect the Dutch players to be cocky and confident again, chest forward and chin up, but that swagger is unwarranted as they – again – were quite rubbish against a mid-level national team (like Poland).

We’ll need to beat Argentina, Brazil, USA, Japan, Portugal, Spain, England and France if we want to be world champions. In this form, we won’t even get to play these nations…