Tunisia might well be the weakest 2026 World Cup nation ever, but they’re not easy to predict.
Where Koeman was able to spend months analysing Sweden and Japan, Tunisia has had two national team coach changes this year. First Lamouchi, after Tunisia underwhelmed at the Africa Cup and now Renard after Tunisia’s loss versus Sweden. He took the reins versus Japan and who knows, we might see yet another coach tomorrow.
Koeman will be best advised to just focus on what we can do.
Left back Ali Abdi: “We were never given time to build, every time they (?) break us down, change things and start again without pushing through. We go to this World Cup with players who never really practiced together. Japan prepped for four years and we only had days.”
All this results in lots of miscommunication during their games. They have not been able to reclaim a ball around the opponents box and they conceded 5 goals in two games, from personal errors. more than any other nation.
Which system Tunesia will play?
Renard said after their Japan loss: “We lack structure and clarity. And when we finally started to get some form of structure, it simply wasn’t enough.” Lamouchi started working on a 4-4-2 shape, but abandoned this after a loss in a friendly versus Belgium and he switched to a 5-3-2, a system his players had never played before. This was versus Sweden and they copped 5 goals. The squad has 4 wingers and three strikers and in the 5-3-2 system, 4 of them can take a seat in the stands.
They can’t even have their defenders on one line, breaking their own off side trap, which allowed Isak to escape the trap and prep the first Sweden goal. Coach Lamouchi decided to bring two attacking mids as controlling mids, a central defender as wingback and a left winger as right back. Somehow, this didn’t work. He is still wondering why. The Tunisian federation decided to can him.
Renard copied the shape of Japan in his first game: 5-4-1 and was able to get ball possession in the wide areas, but that never amounted to anything.
The space was kept limited, but still their defence was vulnerable, due to the lack of forward pressing by the central defenders. The defensive mids were constantly bamboozled by the Japanese and Ueda had the freedom of the pitch due to the defenders’ lack of forward thrust.
As their defenders are not comfortable pushing up, Koeman might be tempted to use Memphis from the start. The coach wants to find options to let Depay build on his rhythm and Tunisia could be the ideal opponent.
One would expect that Tunisia at least can play counter football, like Sweden and Japan, but no. The 5-4-1 was executed at the expense of the wingers and Renard used the playmakers on the flanks, which resulted in a terrible lack of depth.
The Tunisia goal versus Sweden was a freak situation, from a long throw in. The only real attempts on goal were all from dead ball moments. That is the only threat they’ll carry.
How to prep the team?
Koeman will not know what to expect. The 4-4-2 is bound to fail, but the 5-4-1 was only selected because Japan plays like this. Koeman will have to prep the team for different scenarios. One thing we do know, is that the distances between their players is an issue. They are not well drilled and our forwards could have a field day.
We are facing a team lacking quality and confidence. Tunisia wants this tournament to end. For Oranje, an ideal opportunity to build confidence for the knock out stages.
One reason why Koeman might not use Memphis is the yellow card situation. Van de Ven, Summerville and Depay have allow and picking up a second one means a suspension for the first knock out match.
I think it might be good for Koeman to use another left back, as Mickey hasn’t been doing too well.
We might see:
Verbruggen
Geertruida Van Heck Van Dijk Hato
Gravenberch Kluivert Frenkie
Malen Memphis Gakpo
I expect there will be limited space for marauding Dumfries and as he has had a tough season with injuries, we might want to give him a rest.
Summerville and Brobbey will be keen subs for the second half.
Kluivert deserves a run against this opponent, as I think Reijnders’ game is less suited against this – most likely – compact playing Tunisia.
I predict 5-0. Memphis, Kluivert, Malen, Gakpo, Summerville and Brobbey on the score sheet.
Great story. Cruyff would probably just say: “Good, but you still didn’t get it right.” 😉 Serious though — it’s…