Tag: Tadic

Cup Final: Mario Götze has the keys

When you view the Dutch Cup Final in highlights mode, you may have missed Mario Götze. And still, the 29 year old German was the man leading PSV to victory.

On October 6, 2020 a restaurant owner in Eindhoven tweeted to the world that he spotted World Champion Mario Götze at the PSV Stadium. No one believed him. Why would someone like him, the German wunderkind, want to play in the Eredivisie. But new PSV coach Roger Schmidt was able to convince the match winner of the World Cup 2014 finals and the shadow striker paid the coach back with dividend in the 2022 Cup Final.

PSV scored goals in the ten minutes after the break, to pivot the match in PSV’s benefit. Götze was not overly involved. He got the free kick, which enable Erick Gutierrez to score the 1-1. He chopped Daley Blind out of position and Tadic made the foul of the German, offering the Eindhoven club an opportunity to swing the ball in.

The second goal came after a stray pass from Martinez, which was intercepted by skipper Gakpo, who drove forward and hit the ball with his strong right foot in the near corner. Stekelenburg was blind-sighted by Klaassen after Alvarez went for the tackle a bit too eagerly and Cody Gakpo was able to avoid the Mexican. Götze role? He was the one closing the pass to Gravenberch, and immediately went for pressure on Martinez. He decided to play the ball long. The rest you know: 2-1.

The new Götze at PSV is not the man scoring the goals (that is now more for Zahavi, Gakpo or Manueke). He is also not so much the assist king. Veerman, Doan, again Gakpo or Sangare do well in this domain. Götze is the pre-assist king. He dominated between the two boxes with his vision and technique. He is constantly looking for the free spaces to make sure there is an option available for his team mates and was always the extra man available for a pass. In that central “10” position, he has the freedom to go where he can be of most use. He had the most dribbles versus Ajax, he was fouled most by Ajax and had the most successful passes (31). And where he had his touches explains his role in the team, playing from left back to right winger.

On top of that: he works his butt off. He had 25 duels in the Ajax game and won 12 of them. The last PSV player with this many duels one on one, was Luuk de Jong, in 2019. Schmidt after the Ajax match: “I have to check the stats but I think Mario must have ran 25 kilometers!” When Schmidt told Götze his joke, the former Dortmund star quipped: “Correct, but that was measured after 60 minutes!”.

Thanks to Götze, Alvarez was playing with the invisibility cloak. Götze would take care of the Mexican and would then move forward to press Martinez. A typical Götze move for this match was in the 85th minute. He anticipated better than Davy Klaassen on a on a high ball and then took the ball of Berghuis with a sliding tackle. Two minutes later, he picks up a headed ball by Gravenberch and offers Vertessen a great chance, who hit the post. This playmaker was in the spot light for his ball retention. Because this game needed that.

It is not new that Mario Götze is the key man with his passing and his defensive work. In the Europe League match vs Real Sociedad, he also impressed with his work rate. He ran 4,3 kilometers at “high intensity” as it’s called, which was more than 1/3 of all his running. The highest ever in the history of PSV’s stats driven analyses. His pass accuracy is also amazing: 87,1% of all passes end up with a team mate. Only Erick Gutierrez has a higher rate but he plays the controlling mid role and will play more riskless passes. There is no other attacking mid in the Eredivisie with better stats than Götze.

Götze should not be judged on his goals and assists. He is the oil in the PSV machine. He will add to the build up of PSV but also work hard to break down anything their opponents want to conjure up.

The question now is: where will his new ceiling be? He never made a secret of his ambition to want to win the Champions League. He won’t do that with PSV, most likely. Now Schmidt is leaving, the chances are high that Super Mario will leave as well. He also expressed interest in playing another World Cup. Fair play to him. His contract at PSV goes till 2024 but odds are he will leave before that. His goals will be replaced. But his intelligent “middle ware” will be missed. His work ethics will not be easily replaced.

After the Cup Final, Ten Hag muttered that his team was the only team deserving of the win. Schmidt said the same thing about PSV. The stats demonstrate why both coaches would say this.

Shots and Expected Goals PSV And Ajax

PSV Ajax PSV Ajax
First half 2 3 0.06 1.14
Second half 12 5 1.24 0.34
Total 14 8 1.3 1.48

Ajax led the way in the first half re: expected goals. PSV did so in the second half.

Schmidt said that Ajax didn’t create any chance until Gravenberch scored the 0-1. And Ten Hag claimed – rightfully so – that Ajax had gifted PSV two goals.

PSV had a smart tactical plan. They had played a tough – and losing – match v Leicester City for the Conference Cup and needed a smart plan: they’d play physical looked for the duels, in this way taking the pace off the game and making sure there enough little rest moments in the match.

The whole match took 102 minutes. The pure playing time was only 50 minutes. More than half the full match, the ball was not in play!

This was all PSV: they made 17 fouls in the game, the highest in the Eredivisie since February 2021. And with Ajax players exaggerating their injuries and going along with PSV, the pace was taken out of the game completely. This was all in PSV’s favour. Ajax made almost as many fouls by the way (14).

There were not many longer passing sequences. The PSV passing accuracy was 67% a very low number for the Eindhoven team. PSV was clearly aiming for a chaotic game, with lots of fouls and turnaround moments.

Ten Hag had kept Ajax top scorer Seb Haller out of the starting line up. “I felt this game needed Brobbey,” was his comment. Brobbey had one attempt on goal and had three touches in the box. Disappointing, but when Haller joined the match in the second half, he was not able to offer anything. He had zero opportunities and zero touches in the box.

Sub Ritsu Doan created most chances (4) and Bruma had the most shots on goal (4), while sub Vertessen rattled the post. The better chances in the final stages of the game were for PSV, on the counter.

PSV’s magic formula was to copy what Benfica did. Throw sand in the Ajax machine with little annoying fouls and break their rhythm. Clearly, it worked.

Strong Ajax kicked out of Champions League

The visitors were played off the pitch in the first half of the game but were silenced in the second half.

“Being better in possession” was Ten Hag’s mantra after the disappointing draw in Portugal. In order to not fall into the counter-knife of Benfica, Ten Hag made some subtle changes to his system. The left flank, where Ajax suffered most in Lisbon, was set up differently this time, with a leading role for Ryan Gravenberch.

Tactically, this is a different match altogether. In Portugal, supported by the crazy Benfica fans, they pressed high at times.This time around, the Benfica coach used a 4-2-3-1 with a strong defensive block. Ramos played more like a midfielder than an attacker. while Silva and Everton also played more like wingbacks than winger. Benfica’s most important mission: do not concede, hoping Ajax will somehow stumble in the second half.

In order to stop the opponent from being dangerous, Ten Hag has used some more certainties. Daley Blind was out of position a number of times in the away game, when Benfica countered. This time around, he played more like a third centre back.

In the build up, Blind constantly joins Timber and Martinez at the back, which usually means that Ajax has 3 defenders around striker Nunez. Ten Hag before the match: “We need to bring our style to the pitch. Which is cool and collected on the ball and recognising the moment to accelerate. When we do this, it usually means our rest defence is top. In this way, we can manage the game and pounce when there is space.”

Blind as third central defender does indeed offer more on two aspects of the Ajax game: there is more composure on the ball at the back and Ajax’ rest defence is already there when needed. To keep a threat on the left hand side, it’s Gravenberch who is playing wide on the left, with Tadic.

The Benfica defenders have difficulty with this. Their defence is zonal based. Ajax will lure the right winger Silva in the direction of Blind, which means right back Gilbero is faced with Tadic and Gravenberch, at times.

This image above demonstrates the confusion at Benfica. Taarabt and Weigl are both pointing and coaching team mates. Taarabt doesn’t want to pulled away from the centre of the pitch, by Gravenberch, while Weigl is dealing with two opponents: Berghuis and Mazraoui. Taarabt ends up the man to cover for Gilbero in some cases.

Ajax’ most threatening attacks do all come from their left flank.

In the 36th minute, Blind also joins into the attack. But the defensive organisation doesn’t change, as Mazraoui will drop back, and Ajax still has three at the back. Blind’s presence confuses Benfica and Gravenberch finds the space to dribble inside and release a good attempt on goal.

Three minutes later, Gravenberch starts a move that results in a big chance for Berghuis. This time, the attack starts on the right. Martinez with a good cross pass to Gravenberch, who is in a 2 v 1 situation with Tadic. Gravenberch waits till Gilbero bites and plays Tadic in. His pull back into the box offers Berghuis a golden opportunity, but the south paw wants the ball on his left foot and fumbles the chance.

This attack is exactly what Ten Hag wants. Be patient, push the opponent back, create a man more situation and pounce!

Benfica coach Verissimo is not happy with the first half and hooks Taarabt at half time. The playmaker is replaced by a defensive mid, as direct opponent for Gravenberch.

In situations where Gravenberch would have been free on the left, now Meité comes with him. Benfica is able to neutralise the Ajax threat. With 19 minutes to go, Benfica thinks they have enough control to bring more heading capabilities in Yaremchuk, he’ll take the central role and Nunez will move to the left.

With 13 minutes to go, the ref gives a soft free kick to Benfica. Nunez beats Timber in the air and Onana’s timing mistake results in Ajax conceding a goal in a game in which they hardly gave anything away.

Ten Hag responds by bring Brobbey and midfielder Klaassen. Blind first move to left central defender but shifts back to the wing, while Timber takes a more midfield role. Benfica’s speciality is to kill time and Ajax’ final thrust never really takes place.

Ajax played a double ticket against an opponent who rolled out the red carpet in the first leg. In Portugal, Ajax lost the tie, by opening themselves up needlessly. The draw in Portugal was what Benfica needed to completely disrupt Ajax’ game in Amsterdam. A better organisation did help Ajax to stop Benfica from countering but shooting blanks up top and making mistakes with a dead ball was all it needed for Ajax to disappoint in Europe yet again.

Sunday, arch enemy Feyenoord awaits.

Benfica – Ajax: two faced match

Ajax could and should have beaten Benfica in the first leg in Portugal. In a time where a draw away versus a Portuguese top team is lamented as a disappointing results (have we forgotten that we hardly ever won against Portuguese teams, home or away??), Ajax can look back on a decent first half.

Ten Hag explained his choice for Gravenberch over Klaassen in geometrical terms: “With Klaassen I can play vertical, Davey loves his forward runs. But i want to put the emphasis on the width of the park. And Gravenberch is the player for this.” Huh??

Before the half time break. Ten Hag appears to get it right. What Ten Hag described worked. Seb Haller scores the 1-2, and like Ajax’ first goal, it is the result of the tactical hocus pocus of the bald maestro.

In the first half, Benfica is trying to pressure Ajax with a 4-4-2. When that fails, Ramos drops back into midfield to make life hard for Alvarez, trying to stop Ajax finding the free man in the midfield.

In defensive terms, Ajax plays man to man on midfield, as per usual. Alvarez on Ramos, Berghuis makes life hard for Weigl and Gravenberch is up against Adel Taarabt. The pressure play is done by Antony. The right winger is constantly pushing towards Vertonghen, from his position vis a vis Grimaldo. Mazaroui pops up behind Antony in the half space whenever he can.

That patterns is clear to see right before the first Ajax goal. Antony leaves Grimaldi open to push Vertonghen. Goalie Odysseas opens to his left back, assuming he’s got time and space. But Mazraoui pounces like an eagle and pushes the Spaniard off the ball, he combines with Antony and assists the Tadic goal. Seven seconds between the turn over and the ball in the net. It happens so often: the high press resulting in a goal for Ajax.

The way Ajax gifts the equaliser to Benfica must have Ten Hag pulling out all his hair. If he had hair. Martinez is paired with Vertonghen but due to a block, the Argentinian loses him and Mazraoui takes over his duties. But the right back slips and Vertonghen finds himself with time and space. The ex Ajax defender hits the ball in, where Pasveer fails to stop the cross in. And Haller doesn’t count on the goalie’s omission and stands on his heels, not able to move his feet: 1-1.

Still, Ajax gains control swiftly again. The second goal demonstrates why Gravenberch is in the team. Ten Hag has been harping on about pulling the opponent wide. Using the width to create openings in the opponent set up. Another aspect to focus in on, is Timber’s runs into midfield. His opponent Nunez is not one to defend and he allows Timber to become and extra midfielder. Benfica plays zonal and has two player on their right hand side. Ajax puts three players opposite these two. With winger Tadic, left back Blind and midfielder Gravenberch almost hugging the line. Silva is pulled towards the ball by Blind, Berghuis took the left winger role for a bit while Tadic is in the centre and the former Feyenoord talisman crosses the ball into Haller who has two bites of the cherry: 1-2.

This is not a coincidence, because just before the break, this same situation results in another chance for Haller. Timber is in midfield again and Gravenberch plays like an extra left winger and the Benfica defence is getting confused. Ajax opens with a cross ball to the right, where Antony has space one on one. He launches Alvarez and the Mexican hits the post with his shot. The rebound is just to hard for Haller to control with his left.

In the second half. Benfica coach Verissimo plays the joker. Yaremchuk comes as an extra striker. Now, there are three central strikers on the pitch for Benfica and Ajax starts get countered more often, with four Benfica forwards threatening the Ajax goal.

In an attacking sense, Ajax’ wing backs have more space to attack but when the ball is lost, the Benfica forwards have space and time and the game opened up massively.

This is the lead up to the Benfica equaliser: Timber is in the opposing box and in my view, he makes a mistake by simulating an injury, to get a penalty. The slow-mo shows he wasn’t touched. He’s down though and as Gravenberch, Tadic, Blind, Haller and Antony are also up field, the rest defence consists of Alvarez, Berghuis, Martinez and Mazraoui. The Mexican is played out by Silva and the move ends with a distance strike by Ramos. Usually, a low percentage option. Pasveer blocks the shot but the ball drops right in front of the empty goal where Yaremchuk is simply quicker than Berghuis: 2-2.

Ten Hag responds by bring a better defender for left back with Tagliafico. The Argentinian can bomb up the flank too and Klaassen is coming in for Gravenberch. Ajax wants control back. But Benfica is happy with the draw and switch back to a 5-4-1 system and starts to run out the clock.

Benfica ends up being joyous with the draw which is another indication of the big chance Ajax missed to get one leg into the next round. Benfica can now play defensively in Amsterdam and play on the counter attack.

Oh, and it has to be said…. Daley Blind played a terrible game….

Daley Blind mystery finally solved!

For some, this has been a mystery. For others, it was always crystal clear.

Everyone can see Daley Blind’s weaknesses. You don’t need to be a football expert for this. He lacks pace. He can’t head the ball. He hardly scores or assists. He’s actually too slow for a left back and lacks the duelling power for midfield.

Why is it that all coaches he worked with, all football analysts and ex-players rate him so high? Why won’t Van Gaal or Ten Hag bench him for quicker players? Younger players?

Finally, there is a new statistical model being used which clearly shows in stats why Daley Blind is one of the best players in Europe. (Thanks to VI Pro)

The opening goal of Ajax vs FC Utrecht demonstrates Blind’s value vis a vis this new statistical model. And Blind’s role is key. The Ajax left back gets the ball after a turnaround of possession and his action allows for the pass to Steven Berghuis. He dribbles forward and passes to Tadic. The Serb finds Gravenberch who finds Antony. The little Brazilian scores. In traditional statistics, this goal will be summarized as “assist Gravenberch and goal Antony”. Expected goals and Expected Assists do add some context. These stats show you how likely that Antony goal was. But the role of Blind and Tadic in this move can’t be found in the traditional stats. There would not be a pre-assist even for Daley Blind.

This has “Final third” on the Y and “half opponent” on the X -axis. Name of graph: Successful passes

Daley launches his team mates forward like this an absurd number of times, allowing them to penetrate the box. This visualisation above demonstrates the combi of passes on the opponent’s half into the final third. Blind is a category in itself! Only Feyenoord playmaker Orkun Kökçü comes close.

The traditional stats say something alright, but they miss any context. For instance, a through ball getting a player face to face with the goalie is in these stats comparable with a horizontal pass at the middle line. Expected Assists helps to show which player actually create opportunities. The pass before the final pass was also not really on the radar, until the Expected Threat comes into play.

The aim of the Expected Threat is to add value to players who actually start the attacking move. This idea was launched by Sarah Rudd, who worked for Arsenal in 2011. Karun Singh took this model later and created a popular blog post to demonstrate this and the Athletic took the idea and popularised it.

The Expect Threat Zones. The lighter the block, the better the odds to score.

The idea behind Expected Threat is simple. The closer to the goal of the opponent, the high the chance that a goal is scored in the next 5 moves. Historical data helps to give values to these areas. So they divided the pitch into 192 zones (12 in the width and 16 length-wise). The players who get the ball in those high-value zones are scoring the most points, obviously.

Expected Threat identifies the players who are the most successful in finding the quickest route to a goal. And the scores are basically a compounded score of progression made on the pitch, through passing and dribbling (carry). Crosses are not part of this analysis, because the odds to score from a cross are way lower than playing the ball via pass and move into the box.

This sounds like higher math to some, but this video below will show what is meant. The Blind pass which results in the first Ajax goal.

Expected Threat will compare the starting point of possession, with Blind, to the final stage of this move, which is Tadic taking the ball in the box.

 

Statistically, the chance that a team scores within 5 moves at the spot where Blind gets the ball first, is 1,4%. This means, that only once in 67 times that the ball gets to that starting point, a goal will follow within 5 moves.

However, when Tadic takes the ball in box, the chance of Ajax scoring went up to 12.6%, which means that when a team gets the ball here, 1 out of 8 times, a team scores within the next 5 moves.

So, Blind’s pass has increased Ajax’ scoring changes with 11,1% points. And this gives Blind a value in the Expected Threat stat: 0,111 points.

Another example: the first Ajax goal against PSV. Again, Blind starts the move. This time he has a pass in the left channel towards Gravenberch. He brings the ball from a 0,5% zone to a 3,7% zone. With this pass, Blind collects another set of points to his name in the Expected Threat score. The score is lower than in the Utrecht example, because the zone where Gravenberch gets the ball has a lesser value (as it is further from the opponent’s goal).

The winning goal Ajax scored versus PSV also has Daley as a key component. With two trademark passes: he first plays Tadic in, hard and low. Then another pass towards Danilo. These types of passes demonstrate his value for Ajax.

Analysis the matches vs Utrecht and PSV show that Blind has numerous passes with which he accelerates the play. “I want to make every single pass count. In the match, at practice, always. I try to send a message with my pass, to the player I play the ball too. My pass should inform him what my idea is for his next move. When I play in to Dusan Tadic’s right, I want him to turn that way. It doesn’t always work out, but it’s always my intention.”

Recently, Blind spoke in the Cor Podcast about this: “Delaying the pass is the most important thing. When I get the ball, or anyone gets the ball, the opponent is usually in a particular position. They usually are comfortable. When I pass too quick, I am not doing anything about that positioning. But when I delay my pass, I force the opponent to do something. If they don’t come to block me, I can dribble forward. But if a players steps in, another one of my team mates will become free. I actually force the opponent to tell me what my best next move is.”

The facts show that Blind’s words are more than theory. He usually gets the ball in areas where he is not going to be a threat. Usually, on the left flank. The next step is for him to bring the ball there where a threat can develop. His hard, low pass to Tadic is his trademark, these days. Blind plays a cat and mouse game with his opponent. You act as if you don’t know where to go, you look around, maybe turn towards a less risky team mate in midfield, only to suddenly play the fast ball, skipping midfield, into Tadic or Berghuis.

Animation of Ajax’ build up patterns

Erik Ten Hag actually amended his tactics to fully benefit from Blind’s qualities. He is the first build up station. He usually drops back next to central defenders Martinez and Timber, or he moves way to the left, allowing Gravenberch to confuse the opponent by him dropping back. In both situations, the aim is to trick the opponent into making a press on one of these two. When they do start the press, the space around Tadic becomes wider and this is when Blind will play the ball.

Expected Threat captures this quality in statistics. Blind is the leader of this stat in the Eredivisie, as he was last season too. Last season, in the big competition, the stat leads were Neymar in France, Messi in Spain, Jaden Sancho in Germany and Jack Grealish in England. It’s no surprise that these four players are considered the top and three of the four made a big money move last summer.

This year, Blind shares the #1 position with Leo Messi again (France), Vinicius Junior for La Liga and Trent Alexander-Arnold in England.

This list shows the Expected Threat in passing. Different types of players can do well with this stat. Another Ajax player (Tadic) is second on the list, as a left winger. Ajax’ Timber is on the list as a central defender, while Veerman (these are his Heerenveen stats) and Kökçü are more playmakers.

There is a separate stat Expected Threats in Dribbles. Cody Gakpo does really well in that overview and that will also play a role regarding the interest from Liverpool, Man City and Bayern Munich in signing the lanky PSV star.

Stats do not tell the full story of course. One aspect that is not taken into account in the Expected Threat stat is the position of the opponent. Only the start and end position of the move are used and not how many opponent players are taken out of the game by the pass. In this way, teams that dominate on the opponent’s half will always score higher in this stat than counter-attacking teams.

But, this does give us a very objective and measurable reason why Daley Blind is revered by the football experts and that he fully deserves the title of the King of the Pass before the Pass….

I’m sure some of you will start to comment like crazy now….

Steven Berghuis: European Top!

Trust me, I didn’t write this post after Ajax – Besiktas. I started this post a day before. But Berghuis’ goal and assist do carry weight of course, considering today’s topic.

This is also not to keep on hammering home a point. This article was in Voetbal International this weekend and it seems only fair to bring this to your attention. As I know this blog has a number of Berghuis fans and Berghuis haters.

Only a month ago, Davy Klaassen position as Ajax’ #10 seemed not open for debate. Mr 1-0, as he is called, seemed to cruise in that role and last season he got 12 goals and 2 assists for his club, as midfielder.

And yes, Kudus and Berghuis could also play the #10 role, but Klaassen wouldn’t be easy to replace.

Berghuis was signed as a right winger, as alternative for Antony. And friend and foe knew, that was going to be a hell of a competition for Berghuis.

In the 3rd Eredivisie match vs Vitesse, Berghuis was even benched and he saw the Brazilian mercurial winger explode, scoring 3 assists.

Ten Hag did use Berghuis in that match, but as sub for the #10 position. Ten Hag: “I said it before, we have to start the competition while we are still trying to gel the team together. We have several players for the #10 role but they’re all a bit different in their execution. I will keep on trying things out when we can, because we need to be as flexible as possible. This particular move worked well and I might try this more often. But it takes time for players to get used to each others moves and patterns. But good players always find a way to play together.”

After the international break, with Berghuis in a key role as a winger, Klaassen returned with a slight injury and the former Feyenoord captain was placed in the #10 role again. Against PEC Zwolle, he had two assists. In the Sporing Lisbon game he scored his first goal and created several chances. Against Cambuur he scored and assisted and versus Fortuna Sittard he scored as well while creating two goals against FC Groningen.

And thus, the discussion started: does Klaassen deserve a protected role? Ten Hag: “No one has a protected role in our team. Davy is a starter, yes, but we have many. We simply look at form and fitness. But we also check what the match needs and what the opponents’ strengths and weaknesses are.” Is Ten Hag able to keep all his players happy? “That is the job of a coach. You don’t control that, 100% but you have to manage it anyway. The team is always more important than the individual. Every player needs to realise this.”

The Berghuis stats are imposing. He was involved in 8 goals in the Eredivisie this season. The only one bettering him is team mate and captain Dusan Tadic, who was involved 9 times. Bryan Linssen (Feyenoord) and Seb Haller are third.  Berghuis created 16 chances for team mates. Tadic, Veerman (Heerenveen), Sinisterra (Feyenoord), Wittek (Vitesse) and Gakpo (PSV) are the only ones doing better than Berghuis.

But when we look at his previous seasons in the Eredivisie, Berghuis appears to be a guarantee for hoals. Since he came back from Watford in 2016, there was no player in Holland with more goals (72) than him. Linssen has 64 goals and Tadic has 57 since that time. The latter played less game though. There is also no player with more assists than Berghuis: 54 in 156 matches, followed by Ziyech and Tadic.

Lets look at Europe now. The big Five competitions and the Dutch Eredivisie. Since the 2016/17 season, Thomas Muller is the master assist king: 76 assists in 161 matches. Kevin de Bruyne is second with 68 assists in 155 games, and Messi has 64 in 174 games. Berghuis is fourth, with 54 in 156 matches. Fifth on the list is Papu Gomez (Atalanta and Sevilla) with 50 assists in 174 games.