Tag: Tadic

by Jan

Ajax’ nightmare season

In typical Dutch form, people will immediately say: “Who is to blame?”. The answer is not very straightforward. Lets first look at the problem.

Ajax was having a decent run in the past seasons. Frank de Boer did ever so well winning titles and turning the poor Ajax into a cash rich club, with some amazing outgoing transfers putting some fat on the bone. Peter Bosz came in and turned De Boer’s boring Ajax into a free-flowing attacking machine, but Bosz ended his 1 season spell with Ajax when Van der Sar refused to work with Bosz on a reshuffling of the backroom staff.

Marc Overmars was acting as technical director, but mainly with a focus on contracts and signing and selling players. The Ajax Technical Triangle was supposed to take care of the football (De Boer, Bergkamp, Ouaali).

The two friends, Dirty Marc and “I haven’t seen anything untoward” Van der Sar

Overmars was kept out of the decision to block Bosz’ plans and allowed Bergkamp his spot in the sun.

Bosz left and not much later, Dennis Bergkamp – Bosz antagonist – also had to leave.

But Bergkamp was fully in control when he was at Ajax and ushered in Marcel Keizer as the replacement for Bosz. Not a bad decision, mind you. Keizer was successful as a coach on the second tier level at Cambuur and as a real Ajax man (his uncle was Piet Keizer), he also coached Ajax 2 and impressed with that team (which had the likes of Van de Beek, De Ligt, Frenkie and Appie Nouri).

Keizer is also a close friend of Bergkamp, so the two set out to lead Ajax. The Nouri situation – the brilliant ballplayer had heart failure in a friendly in the pre-season and due to the late response, he survived the ordeal but that is about it….the poor lad is confined to his bed for the rest of his life – made matters tough for the young coach and the whole team or even club suffered through trauma that season.

Overmars decided to take the reins back from Bergkamp and organised a coup, in which both Keizer and Bergkamp had to make way. Keizer was on title course and would later impress in the Portuguese competition and in the sandpit. Bergkamp never pursued his career elsewhere and became a bit of a football recluse.

Now Overmars was in charge and he quickly lured his friend Erik ten Hag away from FC Utrecht. Ten Hag had had success with Overmars’ first love Go Ahead Eagles and Mark had always planned to get Ten Hag to Amsterdam.

The duo was quite successful, as we know. Overmars dealing with transfers and contracts, Ten Hag dealing with the first team and the results and Van der Sar safely away from the front, dealing with the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, the sponsors, the board of directors and any other non-football topic.

At that time, Danny Blind was the football man in the Board and he would be an intrinsic part of Overmars little cabal.

And boy, what was Overmars good at his job. And how horrible did he behave when it wasn’t about football.

Overmars telling inappropriate jokes to Sar?

Despite being married to a former Miss Universe (or Miss Holland, not sure), he couldn’t resist using his powerful position at Ajax to bother and hassle the young ladies working at the social media/marketing department of Ajax. And it went further than texting them invites for dinner. The diminutive former winger enjoyed taking pictures of his …less diminutive mini-me and sent them to the ladies in question, who apparently were to scared to report him to the general manager. One key reason: the general manager (yes Edwin van der Sar) knew this was happening and was part of the sexist cabal at Ajax, enjoying inappropriate humor.

Van der Sar protected his powerful friend but when the news broke in the media, it was clear that the former Arsenal and Barca man had to leave.

So, many things had gone wrong already by that time. But Van der Sar took it a bit further. Instead of trying to replace Overmars with a heavyweight – but with manners – he decided to give newcomer Huntelaar and scout Hamstra the joint role of technical director (not in name though).

Oops. Exposed. But a bit too much exposed.

And obviously, both were too lightweight, inexperienced and unconnected to step into Overmars boots. And what people do forget: he is a very good negotiator. He made money playing football and but multiplied his money by dealing in property and classic cars. Huntelaar and Hamstra are definitely people with expertise and added value but they’re no Overmars.

And it showed, this season. Lisandro Martinez left for Man United. Bassey was brought in. Gravenberch left for Bayern, Austrian midfielder Grillisch is his replacement. And so on.

I believe Sar never replaced Overmars, because he hoped (planned?) to get the speedy ex-winger back after a couple of months of “distance from the club”. But it didn’t happen. And when Alfred Schreuder, assisted by his agent, started to “help” Ajax to more new signings, things turned for the worst.

Ocampos was on the wishlist and Ajax would have signed him for 30+ million euros, if the Board of Directors hadn’t intervened. They forced Ajax to take him on a loan basis. And less than 6 months later, the winger was sent back to Spain as he was never able to convince anyone in Amsterdam.

Ocampos failure

But it went further downhill, as Schreuder lost the dressing room due to several bad decisions. His treatment of Daley Blind (who left after the World Cup), his decision to protect Tadic and never sub him, his decision to not use newcomer Wijndal but try Blind, Bassey and Rensch on that spot, the list goes on.

Daley Blind’s exit had another consequence for the club: highly rated Danny Blind – sounding board for coaches and technical management – could not continue his director’s role what with Daley being pushed out unceremoniously. And again, it appeared that Van der Sar and the Board did not have a shadow list waiting in the drawer.

They didn’t have one for Overmars. Not for Danny Blind and when stalwarts like Michael Reiziger and Academy director Said Ouaali announced their exits too, it was quite clear things are a bit fishy in Amsterdam.

John Heitinga was pushed forward when Schreuder was sacked. Much like his old team mate Van Nistelrooy at PSV, Heitinga planned to build up his career with care and consideration. The former Everton defender managed Ajax 2 and was about to start as Schreuder’s assistant but was propelled into the hot seat immediately.

So now, Ajax is re-building. They were able to get former midfielder Jan van Halst in as new football director in the board of directors. They installed Heitinga for this season, with Dwight Lodeweges as he new assistant and they finally signed a technical director – Sven Mislintat –  to replace Overmars, who seems to be enjoying his time at FC Antwerp, with Mark van Bommel. I personally believe Mislintat could well be the right choice, as he has quite a strong resume and clearly adores Ajax.

So, in conclusion, I think its fair to say that after the mismatch of Bosz-Bergkamp-Overmars-Van der Sar, the combination of Ten Hag-Overmars (without Sar) worked amazingly well. There is no need for me to list the achievements of Ten Hag at Ajax.

But when Overmars had to take his leave, Van der Sar needed more than 12 months (!) to replace him. Imagine that, your key guy in the organisation. And it’s not like Van der Sar was ambushed by the dick-pics, he knew about it. So his lack of taking action resulted in a head coach (Schreuder) who was drowning from day 1. And in hindsight, Schreuder also didn’t do himself many favours with his headstrong attitude within the club.

Heitinga with new technical director Sven Mislintat

The combi Ten Hag – Overmars was replaced by Schreuder-Huntelaar-Hamstra and that combination had no chance!

Ajax’ terrible season – in my view – is another nudge of the keepers gloves of Van der Sar. His list of failings is becoming very long.

And if things turn really sour for Ajax this coming weekend – away versus in form Twente – they might end up playing conference league football next season.

The only bonus: last year, when Van der Sar was asked about having to play in the conference league potentially in the future, his answer was: I will not be with the club when that happens. And the fans will now clutch that claim to their chest. The only silver lining in case Ajax finishes 4th this season.

by Jan

On the road to Qatar: Daley “Dilemma” Blind

Here we go guys. Rip into it.

This time, not so much a profile but an analysis. Daley has been covered a lot on this blog. Yes, your friendly blogger is a fan of the left footer (he was a left footed slow player himself) and Blind is a veteran by now and much talked about, so logically he featured here a lot.

Schreuder benched Blind for the first time in a long while versus Rangers FC. Is this the moment the 32 year old will have to face the fact he is not good enough anymore? Who listens to Schreuder will hear that Blind still has a lot of credit with the coach. Whenever the results are bad, Blind is the first to cop criticism, but Schreuder simply points to the number of games Blind played and the fact that Wijndal needs minutes, as explanation for the benching of the left back.

Rafael van der Vaart – himself a left footer with limited speed – was vocal with his criticism: “The problem with Blind is, he can play on many positions on the pitch, but he is not the best option on any of those spots. Malacia the better left back, Ake the better left central defender and Frenkie the better holding mid. It feels like coaching always want to create a spot for him in the team. He seems beyond criticism.”

The problem for Blind is, his flaws are easier to spot than his strengths. His biggest problem is his lack of agility. He is dependent on a good organisation around him. This was the problem recently versus RKC Waalwijk.

Not quick and agile enough to put pressure on

Here in the pic above, Blind’s direct opponent Bel Hassani lures Blind into midfield. He needs to press high, but he is too slow and lacking agility to really follow Bel Hassani, and the result in this particular move is two chances for RKC as a result of Blind’s lack of explosivity.  As a result, Blind is swimming (drowning) in areas where his flaws are very visible and most direct opponents will beat him at these aspects of the game.

The second issue is his lack of speed. Ajax always plays with lots of space behind the last line and he lacks the speed to compensate this. He usually compensates this well with his intelligence and his reading of the game. He is able to steup up at the right time or to close the space by dropping back. When he fails to do so successfully, it really looks clumsy.

This below is from the Volendam game, in which the attacker would score from this move. Pasveer makes a big error and cops the criticism, although Ajax would win this with ease.

Not quick enough to close down

A third problem with Daley is his lack of heading power. Put next to Timber, who is also not the tallest, this is a problem. Blind is pretty good with long balls, as he judges the flight of the ball well and has time to position himself. But when he can’t use his smarts, he lacks the jumping power to really compete. In Oranje, he has the likes of Ake and Van Dijk to assist him with this.

This is another example from the Volendam game.

Not strong enough aerially

This doesn’t mean Blind is a terrible defender. Jose Mourinho wouldn’t play him as a defender in a European finals if he was. In terms of minutes in the Eredivisie, Blind has the most interceptions and in terms of successful tackles and repossessions, he scores higher than Owen Wijndal. There are also not many successful dribbles against him. It’s not easy to beat him in a one v one. Only Jurrien Timber has better stats than Blind.

In the Dutch league, his intelligence and positioning help him to remain one of the best defenders, but at a higher level – Champions League – his stats become really weak.

This is the dilemma for Alfred Schreuder at Ajax and Van Gaal at Oranje. Is it not time now to pick and choose the games where you can use Blind and his strengths versus games where he will be a liability.

Both coaches need to make the decision to see if the risk of playing Blind weighs up to the added value of the defender in possession.

This stat is key for most coached: Blind reaches the forwards almost twice as easy and often as his competition in an Ajax jersey.

# of successful passes into the final third

Daley Blind is the only defender n this list of players and their total passes to the final third. And as a defender, he is even the #1. A strong stat. In Europe, only Alexander-Arnold, Kimmich and Cancelo shine with this statistic. This is usually the domain of the playmaker, such as Kroos, Modric, Verrati or Pedri. The fact that defender Blind is amongst those players tells you something about his crucial role in the Ajax build up.

Only defender amongst attacking mids and forwards

The specialty of the house for Blind is his passing and in particular the fast low pass, which he plays fairly late so he draws in an opponent and plays the free man in.

This again v Volendam. He holds the pass until 5 (!) players of the opponent can be shoved aside with one deep pass. And Blind’s passes usually find a team mate.

Pulling people in to open up the space

How do you like them apples? See below, with Blind – top left – passing into Bergwijn and took 4 players out with the one pass, hard and low and with precision.

Crisp passing to take players out

Another problem the coach will have at Ajax, is that with Blind you can play Alvarez and Klaassen in midfield, who usually don’t really contribute to the build up. Once you lose Blind, you’ll need to bring in a playmaker type player next to Alvarez (Taylor?) to assist with the build up, which will have an impact on the balance of the team.

This is less of a problem in Oranje, where Ake and Van Dijk also have a strong forward build up pass.

So, it seems simple as a football supporter to yell “Blind needs to be benched” but as he is the key man in the build up for Ajax, any coach will want to think twice before they shove that type of quality into the bin.

A little hint from me on my fave starting eleven: I would always take Blind to Qatar as he will be the ideal player to allow Malacia or Ake some rest when they need it.

The video below will explain why Blind was not a failure at Man United :-).

by Jan

On the Road to Qatar: Steven Berghuis

Whether he going the long way from the amateurs to the pros or whether its through a headline grabbing transfer from Feyenoord to Ajax, Steven Berghuis will always go his own way, dreaming of a pro career and dreaming to reach Oranje, like his dad Frank “Pico” (ex PSV, ex-Galatasaray) did.

He made his debut in pro football in 2011, for FC Twente in a game versus Heracles. It’s no surprise that Steven got into the National Team, as that whole team consisted or would consist of internationals. A couple of names: Mihaylov (46 caps for Bulgaria), Rosales (91 caps for Venezuela), Onyewu (69 for the USA), Landzaat (39 caps), Luuk de Jong (38 caps), Nacer Chadli (66 for Belgium) and Marc Janko (70 for Austria) to name a few.

Ironically, defender Douglas didn’t get any. But he was the one Louis van Gaal pushed to get a Dutch passport and after a prolonged visa process, he did get two call ups for qualification matches with Oranje but never played a single minute for the Dutch NT.

Berghuis’ debut in Oranje

12 years later, it’s the longhaired youngster with the shiny boots who would become the most prolific international for Oranje from this particular squad. He made his debut in 2011 but there is only 4 seconds of footage of him, in which he is recognisable due to his typical little spring in his step. Assistant coach Alfred Schreuder (!) told him to go out and enjoy himself but he might not even had touched the ball, against Heracles with a young Remko Pasveer on goal.

A couple of years before his debut, he has had a sniff of pro football when WSV from his home city Apeldoorn selected him as 15 year old to play with the first team against Feyenoord in a friendly. The amateurs lost 4-1 but Berghuis gets his goal and celebrates it as if he just won the Champions League. When he made it to skipper at Feyenoord, many years later, he posted a photo from that match, standing in between Gini Wijnaldum and Slory, with goalie Henk Timmer on the right.

15 year old Berghuis against Wijnaldum

His dream to become a pro player like his dad Frank seems shattered when the Vitesse/AGOVV academy decides to cancel his spot there. He tells his coaches that he will find another way to become a pro player and goes back to his amateur club, where he would play for 2 years, until several pro clubs come knocking. He gets into the Twente first team squad via the Go Ahead Eagles academy and the rest is history. He doesn’t get much chances at Twente, where Co Adriaanse feels he is too feeble and vulnerable for the top. He makes a move on loan to VVV Venlo where he shines and gets picked up by AZ Alkmaar scouts.

Watford recognises his talent and pays good money to lure him and dad Frank (as scout) to Watford, after having impressed at AZ. He doesn’t fit in the system of Quique Sanchez Flores though, and only gets a couple of sub turns, before he is relegated to the B team, from October to April. Late in the season he gets two games and partly due to two Berghuis assists is Watford able to stay up. Flores praises Berghuis’ tenacity but the technician feels English football is probably not for him. When Feyenoord decides to get him in, on loan first, he grabs the opportunity with both hands and becomes a regular at De Kuip.

Danny Blind also recognises his talent and selects him for Oranje. Berghuis would finally eclipse dad Frank, who played 1 cap for Oranje, and gets his hare against Ireland in a friendly.

At Feyenoord, he is important in his first season, when Feyenoord wins the title. Striker Jorgensen and Dirk Kuyt are the key men but Berghuis still gets seven goals and five assists. He will grow out to Feyenoord’s main man and skipper in the seasons after. In four seasons, he will become the most valuable player with a role in 106 goals in 119 matches.

In a 2020 interview, he is asked about his stats in relation to his role as winger: “I don’t see myself as a winger. I don’t have that speed or particular dribble like Robben had. I am more a 10 playing wide. Something you see more often. Ziyech plays like that, Mahrez, Tadic. I could also play as a real 10 I think. But in modern football, a lot of the 10s are now more box to box players, with lots of movement, like Guus Til or Davy Klaassen.”

Steven and Frank Berghuis

Interestingly enough, at Ajax, Berghuis is used a lot as midfielder, and actually, a midfielder who can play at any position. Under Ten Hag he plays mostly as a 10 but under Schreuder and recently in Oranje as well, he is used as an 8 or even a 6.

This means he gets involved sooner, and has more impact on the game. His stats demonstrate this. This season, he had 91 touches in a match and 68 passes! That is the highest he had ever since returning to the Eredivisie.

In Oranje, Van Gaal used him as controlling mid and in that role he had 4 key interceptions defensively and three shots on goal and a wonderful assist.

In the National Team, he can play in any role in midfield and in a 4-3-3 he could also play as right winger. Wonderful for any coach to have such a versatile player, with a wand of a left foot. When he played his first U-19 match, he wondered if he could do better than dad Frank. With 39 caps now and a World Cup on the horizon, it seems like he has definitely made his dad proud.

by Jan

Analysis Ajax – Napoli

Napoli gave Liverpool football lessons earlier in the CL group and Klopp said: “We’ll have to go back to basics, to re-invent ourselves!” The Napoli traveling circus also visited Amsterdam and it seems Ajax too will need to re-invent themselves.

An analysis.

The Expectations

For starters, we need to be honest about where we believe this Ajax is, in their development. They impressed a couple of seasons ago, versus Real Madrid and Juventus and more, with the likes of Ziyech, Schone, De Ligt and Frenkie de Jong. Even more recent, they also got the people excited when Ten Hag was able to “re-invent” the team, adding Lisandro Martinez, Seb Haller and Antony.

Today’s Ajax is not the same. They let Martinez go, and got Bassey back. They let Antony go and use Tadic as his replacement. They had to let Mazraoui go, and are using Rensch in his place. And 38 year old new fave goalie of the month Remko Pasveer is the current goalie. But… is this Ajax capable of beating the best in Europe? With this team? Tadic is lacking form for months now. Berghuis is hot and cold. Blind is clearly getting older. It all starts by realising that the Europa League might be Ajax’s league at this point in time.

Tactics

Ajax can only play one type of game. They do have a tall Italian Plan B striker on the bench, but they basically play the Ajax game, full stop. Which is: build up from the back, pass and move, lost of nifty little passes to get to the opponent’s box and then find the free man. Well, spoiler alert. Liverpool, AZ and now Napoli have shown the world that you can only play like this if you’re good enough. Meaning, if the players at the back (including the goalie) can play the forward pass inch-perfect under pressure. Blind and Timber can do this. Apparently, Bassey and Pasveer not so much. Furthermore, you need players from midfield who can drop deep and pick up the ball for a dribble, a passing move and win a physical battle. Like Frenkie, Gravenberch or Lasse Schone. Taylor and Berghuis are less capable to do this. Taylor is more of an 8, while Berghuis lacks the physical strength. Bassey is poor in the build up and although Timber is a superior talent, he would still need a Van Dijk or Martinez next to him to organise the backline.

When Napoli (or AZ or Liverpool) press ferociously and with more intensity than Ajax can use to play under out of it, the Sons of Gods resort to long balls (Pasveer and Bassey). But these long balls lack precision while Ajax doesn’t use the players up top to do something with these long balls. Which comes down to player selection. Bergwijn, Kudus and Tadic are exactly NOT the players to use in this way. Better to use Brobbey and Luca and even Ocampos for that type of game.

Typical for Ajax, they do what they always do even if it doesn’t work. Schreuder refused to sub his preferred players and has paid the price. When the stadium speaker announced at the start of the second half, that Ajax had not made any changes, the 10,000s in the JC Arena responded with a fierce whistle and booing concert. Schreuder was deaf to it. When Tadic got his first yellow, he should have been subbed. But no, he was allowed to stay and collect his second yellow.

The Quality

As indicated above, Ajax has lost too much quality. Antony left, Ocampos came (a totally different type of player). Bergwijn came, which is good, but he played his best games with Wijndal making his overlaps, so Bergwijn can cut inside and become half a striker in the half spaces. Blind has less of the overlaps and Bergwijn played too much with his back to goal. Tadic is struggling and should have been subbed after his first yellow. Taylor is an exciting midfielder, but he lacks the quality on the ball of Gravenberch and Frenkie de Jong. They could drop down next to the central defenders and play themselves out of trouble. Taylor is less equipped for this (for now at least).

For me, the indication that Ajax was not looking forward to this match and were a bit nervous, was clear in the first 15 minutes. Some unnecessary fouls from Alvarez, Blind and Taylor could have resulted in early yellows. In the first minute, the defenders allowed a ball to bounce in the box and there was some confusion (Bassey rammed the ball forward, to no one) and Timber and Pasveer got themselves into trouble. Ajax rattled.

Football principles

Ajax stuck to its principles and truth be told, when Ajax did play from under the press, they played ok. They found space and seemed to be in the match. But the % of personal duels won was quite low, which shows another problem. The Napoli defenders had a field day and the Ajax midfield struggled to control the game or even win second balls. The right flank of Ajax was a complete embarrassment. Non existent. With Rensch clearly lacking the confidence to support the attack and Tadic playing his worst game yet.

Remko Pasveer has demonstrated something that Van Gaal will have taken notes for: he panics when he is confronted with pressure while having the ball to his feet. He showed this versus AZ and now again. Although he is decent with both feet, he just hammers the ball forward when attacked and that resulted in constant loss of possession. In the first 15 mins, Pasveer and Timber had a miscommunication moment which almost resulted in the first Napoli goal.

Schreuder is not doing himself a lot of favors. Sometimes, it’s important to show the fans you realised you made a mistake and you do what you can to correct it. If there ever was a game to play Ocampos, it was now.

Dead Ball Situations

Most of you will have noticed that Ajax concedes goals (and chances) from set pieces and corners. It happened against Benfica, it happened against Liverpool (last minute of the game) and it happened versus Napoli, several times. There are ways to deal with this, as it is all a matter of focus and organisation. But, either Ajax is too arrogant to work on this (and hire a specialist dead ball coach for instance) or they are too amateur to realise this. I believe it’s the first.

the biggest problem: build up (avoiding the pressure). Ajax did this well at times and created space.

Van Gaal was purring

It seems Van Gaal is getting some great feedback from games like this. I would not be surprised if Pasveer just dropped a couple of spots on the goal keeper list. I don’t see much of Flekken but Cillesen is more impressive I think. It would make sense for Ajax to go to a 3-4-3, like Van Gaal did. Use Blind – who is still excellent on the ball (he actually was pretty good in the first half, apart from the Napoli equaliser) – Bassey and Timber and use Wijndal as wide left full back. This will go at the expense of Tadic, of course.

The Goals

It’s easy to try and blame one player for a goal conceded. For the layman, it’s usually the last defender or goalie who gets it. \

The 1-1 equaliser of Napoli starts with a senseless long ball, easily won by a Napoli defender (duel #1). Then Napoli combines past Alvarez, Tadic and Rensch as if they don’t exist. They are constantly a second or two too late. When the left winger runs deep, Bassey and Blind are covering their opponents on the proper side. But Bassey completely leaves his man behind. Blind goes with his man, but when he crosses over to the left of the box, Bassey forces Blind away by taking over the #11 while Blind now has to cover the penetrating run of goal scorer #81 Raspadori who was on his bike, while Blind stood on his heels. 1-1, not much for Pasveer to do here.

The 1-2 was embarrassing. A short corner with two Napoli players (obviously) only marked by one Ajax player (Berghuis) who is wildly gesticulating to his team mates for support. Timber is ball watching and the Napoli skipper has an easy header. Again, Pasveer couldn’t do much.

By then, Ajax is still  in the game but in the 39th minute another huge chance , for Zielinsky this time. Pasveer stops the ball which was shot right to him. In the 44th minute, Ajax is pushing up to score the equaliser and have 5 players in front of the ball (Blind, Berghuis, Tadic, Kudus, Bergwijn). Alvarez loses the second ball duel, Timber decides to press forward on the striker but doesn’t get the ball. The bounce is played behind Timber, where there is a huge gap as Bassey and Rensch are also too high. One fast runner and a weak attempt from Pasveer and it’s 1-3, when Ajax was hoping for the 2-2.

Alvarez taking a huge gamble

Not a lot of trouble you’d say. Ajax can score two goals in 45 minutes and get back to 3-3, right?

But then in the first minutes of the first half, while the audience whistles due to no subs and the Bob Marley song “3 little birds” blasts from the speakers in the Arena, something terrible happens. Bergwijn is squeezed off the ball by two Napolitans (?). A long spell of Napoli possession ensues. Alvarez wins the ball in his own box and wants to play out with some nonchalance, engaging Pasveer in the short passing, who plays the ball to Bassey, but the pass doesn’t get there, It’s an 8 yard pass and it goes awfully wrong. The ball ends at the feet of Raspadori who gets his second. Pasveer bows his head.

Pressure on Pasveer

Now we’re 60 minutes into the game. Ndombele powers forward, 4 Italians vs 5 Ajax defenders. A little one – two combination (not unlike the Taylor – Bergwijn one for the 1-0) and Karanskhelia just passes the ball passed Pasveer 1-5. Simeone comes in as a sub and around the 80st minute, the situation becomes even worse . Ajax wants to build up from the back. It’s a sluggish so Pasveer hooves the ball forward. The aerial duel is won by Napoli (of course). Napoli finds space in between the lines, and a simple little flick plays the ball behind Bassey who doesn’t see the runner behind him 1-6.

In summary:

Pasveer simply gives possession away all the time. This was the case versus Liverpool and it is happening again versus Napoli. Playing high long balls to Tadic and Kudus really doesn’t work against Rrahmani and Min-Jae. Raspadori was clearly instructed to constantly put pressure on the 38 year old. In the past, Ajax had players like Martinez, Mazraoui and Gravenberch to avoid the press. Today, only Blind and Timber can do this. It is not enough.

Again, pressure on Pasveer

Ajax doesn’t take dead ball moments seriously. The second goal comes from a corner, where Berghuis has to wake up Tadic to come and put pressure on the ball. Pasveer is still organising when the corner is taken. Bassey and Alvarez are also not paying attention while Berghuis waits for Tadic to put pressure, instead of doing it himself as he is closest.

Too many Ajax players are betting on their mates winning the ball and moving forward when it’s actually not possible yet. Too many players think too offensive. Take this situation, as described earlier. Too many player in front of the ball and Alvarez taking a big risk going for a loose ball, exposing his defence.

Focus is also a problem. Here you can see Taylor mourning a missed pass, while the opponent is heading towards the Ajax goal.

In a match that isn’t going your way, you need to keep the focus, stick to your tasks and stick to your position.

A bad Ajax playing a top Napoli will therefore result in a massive hammering. Work to be done!

by Jan

Alfred Schreuder’s Ajax plans

Alfred Schreuder impressed in his early coaching days, at FC Twente and PSV and made his way from assistant coach (Ten Hag, Nagelsmann, Koeman) to title winning head coach, at Club Brugge.

He was seen as instrumental in the 2019 success campaign with Ajax and is now back at the club, in the head coach role. His plans and ideas for the new season…

“I can see the team getting sharper and the chemistry is growing really well amongst the new lads. The mainstay players are back and hitting their usual levels and we have some new blood now as well. Last season, we had a couple of set backs to deal with her. The CL loss versus Benfica was a shock to the system, but so was Antony’s injury. Despite the weaker second half last season, I can see the patterns of the first season’s half emerging again. That is our platform.”

Mohammed Kudus

“We have some much attacking talent. Let me mention Kudus. He came as a midfielder, a number 8 or 10. We didn’t see much of him due to his injury woes, but I love playing him higher up the pitch. He is such an intuitive player, to play him in midfield means I have to restrict him. He needs to play more tactical. Not his strength. If I play him in a free flowing false 9 role, call it the Tadic role, he shows some real quality. He is unpredictable. I love that in a player. He’s strong, he’s quick and he doesn’t stick to one particular thing. He is one of the players that exceeded my expectations.”

Multi-functional

“I love players like Kudus, who can play in different roles. I mean, Tadic…he can play in the 10 role, as a striker and as a left winger. Same with Steven Bergwijn. Berghuis can play the 10 or the right wing or even in a midfield role as an double pivot holding mid. Daley Blind can play in 3 roles, Timber can play in different spots, I can keep on going like this. This way, I don’t have to have a “core eleven”. I can switch it up anywhich way. Depending on the opponent, the form of the day, the specific circumstances of the day. It’s abundance for me as a coach, as if I have 44 first squad players. You don’t win trophies with eleven players…”

Competition

“Yes there is competition of course, but also collaboration. We are doing this as a team. We have several players for only a limited number of positions. I can only field 3 midfielders, but I have 6 top options. It’s not a problem for me. It’s just my job. If a player doesn’t play for 6 matches in a row, yes, he’ll get frustrated, I get that. But we will play a match every 4 days so rotation is the name of the game. My job is to make sure all players feel seen and are happy. Playing or not playing.”

Patterns

“Some people say you can only get these automations and patterns when you play the same eleven. Not true of course. You can work on these with all players so it becomes even easier to rotate and use different players. There will be subtle changes, but the time that a player could only play with one particular team mate or something is over. We have 3 or 4 possible left backs, in Blind, Wijndal, Bassey and Rensch. Tadic will have to be able to play with all of them and knowing what the particular strengths are of the different players.”

Fitness levels

“Remko Pasveer, Jurrien Timber and Antony are recovering really well. They’ll be making their first minutes soon. With Antony, we get more options as he is amazing on the wide side, but he can also play in the half spaces, close to Berghuis. We’ll experiment more with those options. Timber might not be ready for the Johan Cruyff Shield. We’ll be careful with him, we envision a long season.”

Level of play

“We are focusing on the way we played in the first half of last season. The level was really high and we know we can touch on that again, as our benchmark. We need to see the positive energy again, the joy of playing. If we can muster that in combination with the quality we have, we should be doing really well again. We will build on what Erik ten Hag did here. Our way of pressing will need to adapt a bit. We need to get more different options. Feyenoord also presses high but they do it differently to us. We used to use our wingers to put pressure on the half spaces and the centre back. Feyenoord uses their #10 to put pressure on the centre back. An interesting option for us to check as well. A lot is also depending on how much space the opponent has between their centre backs. If the space is too wide, our #10 pressing will mean our other midfielders are facing a man more. Which might not be ideal. And all these choices have flow on effects for the wingers and the other players. It’s like conducting a symphony, isn’t it?”

Pressing

“I studied Bayern Munich’s pressing under Hansi Flick. They were able to press anywhere and in any combination. It looked like chaos but they all joined in and it was glorious to see how they all participated. It requires trust and team work because if one player doesn’t participate, you’re gone. I am working hard with the lads to make sure they can recognise the patterns. What to do when the opponent plays with the centre backs close together, or… when they are more wide. I need players to come up with solutions. I don’t want to pre-chew their food.  Take the Red Bull Salzburg game, who started playing long balls. I am keen to see how our team deals with that, without me jumping up from the bench to yell instructions.”

The Key Players

“I spend a lot of time with the players whom I expect to be able to take charge on the pitch. Tadic, Blind, Klaassen, Timber and Berghuis are those guys. I need to them to recognise situations and patterns. These lads are all tactically astute and need to be more pro-active in their football thinking. Yes, it’s called football but it could have been named brainball…”

Schreuder’s talks

“I talk a lot with the players. I need to know how they feel about things, what their beliefs are and how they process certain things. I also need to get to know them personally. What motivates or triggers them. Take Mohammed Kudus, I spent time with him also to explain that my choices do not mean I don’t see him as a midfielder. I don’t want players to become anxious when I do something unpredictable. I need them to see my point, just like I want to see their points.”

Build up

“I like to build up with three players from the back. And I need them to be higher up, so we can create more effective triangles. When we play against a 5-4-1 it won’t really work, there will not be enough space, but I need to make sure we can use our players’ strengths. Antony is very good with his back to the touch line. But Tadic is better in the half spaces. Bergwijn can do both very well. Last week, I trained with three at the back: Blind, Rensch and Timber. And Rensch has got some development to make, to realise his positioning. When we’re in possession, it goes well. He really understands where to be, but when we lose possession, he’s drifting too much. A bit like Mazraoui in the beginning. He had that too. It takes time. We’re also working hard on different options in midfield. When Alvarez is marked, what does Berghuis do and vice versa. I now want to try out Ken Taylor in the Frenkie role. I think he can play that role but I need to work it still. That is for next week. We’re also trying to get some variance in the build up. At times, I want to pivot the full backs. Keeping the right back deep and move Timber into midfield. Or vice versa. Against Salzburg, we were faced with a diamond in midfield. Interesting. Rensch forgot to follow the left midfielder, who at times came into the left winger role. These are the details we are working on now.”

Target man

“We almost have a well-balanced squad but I miss a target man. We don’t have one of these and you can really use them in certain situations. Take Luuk de Jong at Barca. Haller can be dangerous from crosses from the wings and he’s not longer here. Brobbey is not that type and I think it will be hard to find a 25 year old to play that role. You’re more looking at a Luuk de Jong or a Klaas Jan Huntelaar in his last phase here at Ajax. We are still looking for a strong header to take that role.”

Players leaving

“I can be brief about this topic: as far as I am concerned, no one leaves now. Tagliafico is the last to go. Antony will stay at Ajax. Not for sale. Martinez went to Man United and we signed Calvin Bassey in his place. A strong player, who can also play left back. Giving us an extra option. Blind and Bassey can both play centrally too. I haven’t used Daley as midfielder yet, and I think I will. I know he’s capable in that role. He is so good tactically. He is one of those players who can easily slot into a new position.”

Francisco Conceicao

“What a player! He is young, he has a tremendous dribble one v one. He has a lot of potential. He is leaving Porto and his dad because he can see Ajax is the ideal next step for him. He has a great mentality. We had some good talks with his dad, who used to be a top top player too. He finds it hard that his son is leaving but he also knows Ajax is a great club for his development and next steps. He knows his son will be in good hands. We signed him as a stand in for Antony, and we’ll give him time to get used to the game and our squad.”

Goal keepers

“The battle of the goalies is still open. Stekelenburg started so well too, but he got injured. I do think he’ll be back soon. But all three are top. Pasveer has that calm and cool, while Gorter is very lively, a mega talent. Gorter is ready to go but I think we will wait with our decision until all goalies are fit. I am also focusing on the partnership with the central defenders. I think they’re quite equal in their qualities, they all three are great with their feet too.”

Mo Ihattaren

“The club is in contact with him. That is all I can say. I focus on the players I have at my disposal and at this stage, Mo is not ready. He’s dealing with some nasty personal business. We have a trainings program for him and I hope we’ll see him soon again.”

The title battle

“I will be between the top 3 again. PSV has done amazing business, and they had to too, due to their CL ambitions. Feyenoord is a bit slow again but they did good business late in the window last season and Slot has demonstrated he doesn’t need a lot of time to gel a good team. But we’ll focus on ourselves. We have a top squad again and we will keep on building on our own strengths.”

by Jan

Cup Final: Mario Götze has the keys

When you view the Dutch Cup Final in highlights mode, you may have missed Mario Götze. And still, the 29 year old German was the man leading PSV to victory.

On October 6, 2020 a restaurant owner in Eindhoven tweeted to the world that he spotted World Champion Mario Götze at the PSV Stadium. No one believed him. Why would someone like him, the German wunderkind, want to play in the Eredivisie. But new PSV coach Roger Schmidt was able to convince the match winner of the World Cup 2014 finals and the shadow striker paid the coach back with dividend in the 2022 Cup Final.

PSV scored goals in the ten minutes after the break, to pivot the match in PSV’s benefit. Götze was not overly involved. He got the free kick, which enable Erick Gutierrez to score the 1-1. He chopped Daley Blind out of position and Tadic made the foul of the German, offering the Eindhoven club an opportunity to swing the ball in.

The second goal came after a stray pass from Martinez, which was intercepted by skipper Gakpo, who drove forward and hit the ball with his strong right foot in the near corner. Stekelenburg was blind-sighted by Klaassen after Alvarez went for the tackle a bit too eagerly and Cody Gakpo was able to avoid the Mexican. Götze role? He was the one closing the pass to Gravenberch, and immediately went for pressure on Martinez. He decided to play the ball long. The rest you know: 2-1.

The new Götze at PSV is not the man scoring the goals (that is now more for Zahavi, Gakpo or Manueke). He is also not so much the assist king. Veerman, Doan, again Gakpo or Sangare do well in this domain. Götze is the pre-assist king. He dominated between the two boxes with his vision and technique. He is constantly looking for the free spaces to make sure there is an option available for his team mates and was always the extra man available for a pass. In that central “10” position, he has the freedom to go where he can be of most use. He had the most dribbles versus Ajax, he was fouled most by Ajax and had the most successful passes (31). And where he had his touches explains his role in the team, playing from left back to right winger.

On top of that: he works his butt off. He had 25 duels in the Ajax game and won 12 of them. The last PSV player with this many duels one on one, was Luuk de Jong, in 2019. Schmidt after the Ajax match: “I have to check the stats but I think Mario must have ran 25 kilometers!” When Schmidt told Götze his joke, the former Dortmund star quipped: “Correct, but that was measured after 60 minutes!”.

Thanks to Götze, Alvarez was playing with the invisibility cloak. Götze would take care of the Mexican and would then move forward to press Martinez. A typical Götze move for this match was in the 85th minute. He anticipated better than Davy Klaassen on a on a high ball and then took the ball of Berghuis with a sliding tackle. Two minutes later, he picks up a headed ball by Gravenberch and offers Vertessen a great chance, who hit the post. This playmaker was in the spot light for his ball retention. Because this game needed that.

It is not new that Mario Götze is the key man with his passing and his defensive work. In the Europe League match vs Real Sociedad, he also impressed with his work rate. He ran 4,3 kilometers at “high intensity” as it’s called, which was more than 1/3 of all his running. The highest ever in the history of PSV’s stats driven analyses. His pass accuracy is also amazing: 87,1% of all passes end up with a team mate. Only Erick Gutierrez has a higher rate but he plays the controlling mid role and will play more riskless passes. There is no other attacking mid in the Eredivisie with better stats than Götze.

Götze should not be judged on his goals and assists. He is the oil in the PSV machine. He will add to the build up of PSV but also work hard to break down anything their opponents want to conjure up.

The question now is: where will his new ceiling be? He never made a secret of his ambition to want to win the Champions League. He won’t do that with PSV, most likely. Now Schmidt is leaving, the chances are high that Super Mario will leave as well. He also expressed interest in playing another World Cup. Fair play to him. His contract at PSV goes till 2024 but odds are he will leave before that. His goals will be replaced. But his intelligent “middle ware” will be missed. His work ethics will not be easily replaced.

After the Cup Final, Ten Hag muttered that his team was the only team deserving of the win. Schmidt said the same thing about PSV. The stats demonstrate why both coaches would say this.

Shots and Expected Goals PSV And Ajax

PSVAjaxPSVAjax
First half230.061.14
Second half1251.240.34
Total1481.31.48

Ajax led the way in the first half re: expected goals. PSV did so in the second half.

Schmidt said that Ajax didn’t create any chance until Gravenberch scored the 0-1. And Ten Hag claimed – rightfully so – that Ajax had gifted PSV two goals.

PSV had a smart tactical plan. They had played a tough – and losing – match v Leicester City for the Conference Cup and needed a smart plan: they’d play physical looked for the duels, in this way taking the pace off the game and making sure there enough little rest moments in the match.

The whole match took 102 minutes. The pure playing time was only 50 minutes. More than half the full match, the ball was not in play!

This was all PSV: they made 17 fouls in the game, the highest in the Eredivisie since February 2021. And with Ajax players exaggerating their injuries and going along with PSV, the pace was taken out of the game completely. This was all in PSV’s favour. Ajax made almost as many fouls by the way (14).

There were not many longer passing sequences. The PSV passing accuracy was 67% a very low number for the Eindhoven team. PSV was clearly aiming for a chaotic game, with lots of fouls and turnaround moments.

Ten Hag had kept Ajax top scorer Seb Haller out of the starting line up. “I felt this game needed Brobbey,” was his comment. Brobbey had one attempt on goal and had three touches in the box. Disappointing, but when Haller joined the match in the second half, he was not able to offer anything. He had zero opportunities and zero touches in the box.

Sub Ritsu Doan created most chances (4) and Bruma had the most shots on goal (4), while sub Vertessen rattled the post. The better chances in the final stages of the game were for PSV, on the counter.

PSV’s magic formula was to copy what Benfica did. Throw sand in the Ajax machine with little annoying fouls and break their rhythm. Clearly, it worked.

by Jan

Strong Ajax kicked out of Champions League

The visitors were played off the pitch in the first half of the game but were silenced in the second half.

“Being better in possession” was Ten Hag’s mantra after the disappointing draw in Portugal. In order to not fall into the counter-knife of Benfica, Ten Hag made some subtle changes to his system. The left flank, where Ajax suffered most in Lisbon, was set up differently this time, with a leading role for Ryan Gravenberch.

Tactically, this is a different match altogether. In Portugal, supported by the crazy Benfica fans, they pressed high at times.This time around, the Benfica coach used a 4-2-3-1 with a strong defensive block. Ramos played more like a midfielder than an attacker. while Silva and Everton also played more like wingbacks than winger. Benfica’s most important mission: do not concede, hoping Ajax will somehow stumble in the second half.

In order to stop the opponent from being dangerous, Ten Hag has used some more certainties. Daley Blind was out of position a number of times in the away game, when Benfica countered. This time around, he played more like a third centre back.

In the build up, Blind constantly joins Timber and Martinez at the back, which usually means that Ajax has 3 defenders around striker Nunez. Ten Hag before the match: “We need to bring our style to the pitch. Which is cool and collected on the ball and recognising the moment to accelerate. When we do this, it usually means our rest defence is top. In this way, we can manage the game and pounce when there is space.”

Blind as third central defender does indeed offer more on two aspects of the Ajax game: there is more composure on the ball at the back and Ajax’ rest defence is already there when needed. To keep a threat on the left hand side, it’s Gravenberch who is playing wide on the left, with Tadic.

The Benfica defenders have difficulty with this. Their defence is zonal based. Ajax will lure the right winger Silva in the direction of Blind, which means right back Gilbero is faced with Tadic and Gravenberch, at times.

This image above demonstrates the confusion at Benfica. Taarabt and Weigl are both pointing and coaching team mates. Taarabt doesn’t want to pulled away from the centre of the pitch, by Gravenberch, while Weigl is dealing with two opponents: Berghuis and Mazraoui. Taarabt ends up the man to cover for Gilbero in some cases.

Ajax’ most threatening attacks do all come from their left flank.

In the 36th minute, Blind also joins into the attack. But the defensive organisation doesn’t change, as Mazraoui will drop back, and Ajax still has three at the back. Blind’s presence confuses Benfica and Gravenberch finds the space to dribble inside and release a good attempt on goal.

Three minutes later, Gravenberch starts a move that results in a big chance for Berghuis. This time, the attack starts on the right. Martinez with a good cross pass to Gravenberch, who is in a 2 v 1 situation with Tadic. Gravenberch waits till Gilbero bites and plays Tadic in. His pull back into the box offers Berghuis a golden opportunity, but the south paw wants the ball on his left foot and fumbles the chance.

This attack is exactly what Ten Hag wants. Be patient, push the opponent back, create a man more situation and pounce!

Benfica coach Verissimo is not happy with the first half and hooks Taarabt at half time. The playmaker is replaced by a defensive mid, as direct opponent for Gravenberch.

In situations where Gravenberch would have been free on the left, now Meité comes with him. Benfica is able to neutralise the Ajax threat. With 19 minutes to go, Benfica thinks they have enough control to bring more heading capabilities in Yaremchuk, he’ll take the central role and Nunez will move to the left.

With 13 minutes to go, the ref gives a soft free kick to Benfica. Nunez beats Timber in the air and Onana’s timing mistake results in Ajax conceding a goal in a game in which they hardly gave anything away.

Ten Hag responds by bring Brobbey and midfielder Klaassen. Blind first move to left central defender but shifts back to the wing, while Timber takes a more midfield role. Benfica’s speciality is to kill time and Ajax’ final thrust never really takes place.

Ajax played a double ticket against an opponent who rolled out the red carpet in the first leg. In Portugal, Ajax lost the tie, by opening themselves up needlessly. The draw in Portugal was what Benfica needed to completely disrupt Ajax’ game in Amsterdam. A better organisation did help Ajax to stop Benfica from countering but shooting blanks up top and making mistakes with a dead ball was all it needed for Ajax to disappoint in Europe yet again.

Sunday, arch enemy Feyenoord awaits.

by Jan

Benfica – Ajax: two faced match

Ajax could and should have beaten Benfica in the first leg in Portugal. In a time where a draw away versus a Portuguese top team is lamented as a disappointing results (have we forgotten that we hardly ever won against Portuguese teams, home or away??), Ajax can look back on a decent first half.

Ten Hag explained his choice for Gravenberch over Klaassen in geometrical terms: “With Klaassen I can play vertical, Davey loves his forward runs. But i want to put the emphasis on the width of the park. And Gravenberch is the player for this.” Huh??

Before the half time break. Ten Hag appears to get it right. What Ten Hag described worked. Seb Haller scores the 1-2, and like Ajax’ first goal, it is the result of the tactical hocus pocus of the bald maestro.

In the first half, Benfica is trying to pressure Ajax with a 4-4-2. When that fails, Ramos drops back into midfield to make life hard for Alvarez, trying to stop Ajax finding the free man in the midfield.

In defensive terms, Ajax plays man to man on midfield, as per usual. Alvarez on Ramos, Berghuis makes life hard for Weigl and Gravenberch is up against Adel Taarabt. The pressure play is done by Antony. The right winger is constantly pushing towards Vertonghen, from his position vis a vis Grimaldo. Mazaroui pops up behind Antony in the half space whenever he can.

That patterns is clear to see right before the first Ajax goal. Antony leaves Grimaldi open to push Vertonghen. Goalie Odysseas opens to his left back, assuming he’s got time and space. But Mazraoui pounces like an eagle and pushes the Spaniard off the ball, he combines with Antony and assists the Tadic goal. Seven seconds between the turn over and the ball in the net. It happens so often: the high press resulting in a goal for Ajax.

The way Ajax gifts the equaliser to Benfica must have Ten Hag pulling out all his hair. If he had hair. Martinez is paired with Vertonghen but due to a block, the Argentinian loses him and Mazraoui takes over his duties. But the right back slips and Vertonghen finds himself with time and space. The ex Ajax defender hits the ball in, where Pasveer fails to stop the cross in. And Haller doesn’t count on the goalie’s omission and stands on his heels, not able to move his feet: 1-1.

Still, Ajax gains control swiftly again. The second goal demonstrates why Gravenberch is in the team. Ten Hag has been harping on about pulling the opponent wide. Using the width to create openings in the opponent set up. Another aspect to focus in on, is Timber’s runs into midfield. His opponent Nunez is not one to defend and he allows Timber to become and extra midfielder. Benfica plays zonal and has two player on their right hand side. Ajax puts three players opposite these two. With winger Tadic, left back Blind and midfielder Gravenberch almost hugging the line. Silva is pulled towards the ball by Blind, Berghuis took the left winger role for a bit while Tadic is in the centre and the former Feyenoord talisman crosses the ball into Haller who has two bites of the cherry: 1-2.

This is not a coincidence, because just before the break, this same situation results in another chance for Haller. Timber is in midfield again and Gravenberch plays like an extra left winger and the Benfica defence is getting confused. Ajax opens with a cross ball to the right, where Antony has space one on one. He launches Alvarez and the Mexican hits the post with his shot. The rebound is just to hard for Haller to control with his left.

In the second half. Benfica coach Verissimo plays the joker. Yaremchuk comes as an extra striker. Now, there are three central strikers on the pitch for Benfica and Ajax starts get countered more often, with four Benfica forwards threatening the Ajax goal.

In an attacking sense, Ajax’ wing backs have more space to attack but when the ball is lost, the Benfica forwards have space and time and the game opened up massively.

This is the lead up to the Benfica equaliser: Timber is in the opposing box and in my view, he makes a mistake by simulating an injury, to get a penalty. The slow-mo shows he wasn’t touched. He’s down though and as Gravenberch, Tadic, Blind, Haller and Antony are also up field, the rest defence consists of Alvarez, Berghuis, Martinez and Mazraoui. The Mexican is played out by Silva and the move ends with a distance strike by Ramos. Usually, a low percentage option. Pasveer blocks the shot but the ball drops right in front of the empty goal where Yaremchuk is simply quicker than Berghuis: 2-2.

Ten Hag responds by bring a better defender for left back with Tagliafico. The Argentinian can bomb up the flank too and Klaassen is coming in for Gravenberch. Ajax wants control back. But Benfica is happy with the draw and switch back to a 5-4-1 system and starts to run out the clock.

Benfica ends up being joyous with the draw which is another indication of the big chance Ajax missed to get one leg into the next round. Benfica can now play defensively in Amsterdam and play on the counter attack.

Oh, and it has to be said…. Daley Blind played a terrible game….

by Jan

Daley Blind mystery finally solved!

For some, this has been a mystery. For others, it was always crystal clear.

Everyone can see Daley Blind’s weaknesses. You don’t need to be a football expert for this. He lacks pace. He can’t head the ball. He hardly scores or assists. He’s actually too slow for a left back and lacks the duelling power for midfield.

Why is it that all coaches he worked with, all football analysts and ex-players rate him so high? Why won’t Van Gaal or Ten Hag bench him for quicker players? Younger players?

Finally, there is a new statistical model being used which clearly shows in stats why Daley Blind is one of the best players in Europe. (Thanks to VI Pro)

The opening goal of Ajax vs FC Utrecht demonstrates Blind’s value vis a vis this new statistical model. And Blind’s role is key. The Ajax left back gets the ball after a turnaround of possession and his action allows for the pass to Steven Berghuis. He dribbles forward and passes to Tadic. The Serb finds Gravenberch who finds Antony. The little Brazilian scores. In traditional statistics, this goal will be summarized as “assist Gravenberch and goal Antony”. Expected goals and Expected Assists do add some context. These stats show you how likely that Antony goal was. But the role of Blind and Tadic in this move can’t be found in the traditional stats. There would not be a pre-assist even for Daley Blind.

This has “Final third” on the Y and “half opponent” on the X -axis. Name of graph: Successful passes

Daley launches his team mates forward like this an absurd number of times, allowing them to penetrate the box. This visualisation above demonstrates the combi of passes on the opponent’s half into the final third. Blind is a category in itself! Only Feyenoord playmaker Orkun Kökçü comes close.

The traditional stats say something alright, but they miss any context. For instance, a through ball getting a player face to face with the goalie is in these stats comparable with a horizontal pass at the middle line. Expected Assists helps to show which player actually create opportunities. The pass before the final pass was also not really on the radar, until the Expected Threat comes into play.

The aim of the Expected Threat is to add value to players who actually start the attacking move. This idea was launched by Sarah Rudd, who worked for Arsenal in 2011. Karun Singh took this model later and created a popular blog post to demonstrate this and the Athletic took the idea and popularised it.

The Expect Threat Zones. The lighter the block, the better the odds to score.

The idea behind Expected Threat is simple. The closer to the goal of the opponent, the high the chance that a goal is scored in the next 5 moves. Historical data helps to give values to these areas. So they divided the pitch into 192 zones (12 in the width and 16 length-wise). The players who get the ball in those high-value zones are scoring the most points, obviously.

Expected Threat identifies the players who are the most successful in finding the quickest route to a goal. And the scores are basically a compounded score of progression made on the pitch, through passing and dribbling (carry). Crosses are not part of this analysis, because the odds to score from a cross are way lower than playing the ball via pass and move into the box.

This sounds like higher math to some, but this video below will show what is meant. The Blind pass which results in the first Ajax goal.

Expected Threat will compare the starting point of possession, with Blind, to the final stage of this move, which is Tadic taking the ball in the box.

 

Statistically, the chance that a team scores within 5 moves at the spot where Blind gets the ball first, is 1,4%. This means, that only once in 67 times that the ball gets to that starting point, a goal will follow within 5 moves.

However, when Tadic takes the ball in box, the chance of Ajax scoring went up to 12.6%, which means that when a team gets the ball here, 1 out of 8 times, a team scores within the next 5 moves.

So, Blind’s pass has increased Ajax’ scoring changes with 11,1% points. And this gives Blind a value in the Expected Threat stat: 0,111 points.

Another example: the first Ajax goal against PSV. Again, Blind starts the move. This time he has a pass in the left channel towards Gravenberch. He brings the ball from a 0,5% zone to a 3,7% zone. With this pass, Blind collects another set of points to his name in the Expected Threat score. The score is lower than in the Utrecht example, because the zone where Gravenberch gets the ball has a lesser value (as it is further from the opponent’s goal).

The winning goal Ajax scored versus PSV also has Daley as a key component. With two trademark passes: he first plays Tadic in, hard and low. Then another pass towards Danilo. These types of passes demonstrate his value for Ajax.

Analysis the matches vs Utrecht and PSV show that Blind has numerous passes with which he accelerates the play. “I want to make every single pass count. In the match, at practice, always. I try to send a message with my pass, to the player I play the ball too. My pass should inform him what my idea is for his next move. When I play in to Dusan Tadic’s right, I want him to turn that way. It doesn’t always work out, but it’s always my intention.”

Recently, Blind spoke in the Cor Podcast about this: “Delaying the pass is the most important thing. When I get the ball, or anyone gets the ball, the opponent is usually in a particular position. They usually are comfortable. When I pass too quick, I am not doing anything about that positioning. But when I delay my pass, I force the opponent to do something. If they don’t come to block me, I can dribble forward. But if a players steps in, another one of my team mates will become free. I actually force the opponent to tell me what my best next move is.”

The facts show that Blind’s words are more than theory. He usually gets the ball in areas where he is not going to be a threat. Usually, on the left flank. The next step is for him to bring the ball there where a threat can develop. His hard, low pass to Tadic is his trademark, these days. Blind plays a cat and mouse game with his opponent. You act as if you don’t know where to go, you look around, maybe turn towards a less risky team mate in midfield, only to suddenly play the fast ball, skipping midfield, into Tadic or Berghuis.

Animation of Ajax’ build up patterns

Erik Ten Hag actually amended his tactics to fully benefit from Blind’s qualities. He is the first build up station. He usually drops back next to central defenders Martinez and Timber, or he moves way to the left, allowing Gravenberch to confuse the opponent by him dropping back. In both situations, the aim is to trick the opponent into making a press on one of these two. When they do start the press, the space around Tadic becomes wider and this is when Blind will play the ball.

Expected Threat captures this quality in statistics. Blind is the leader of this stat in the Eredivisie, as he was last season too. Last season, in the big competition, the stat leads were Neymar in France, Messi in Spain, Jaden Sancho in Germany and Jack Grealish in England. It’s no surprise that these four players are considered the top and three of the four made a big money move last summer.

This year, Blind shares the #1 position with Leo Messi again (France), Vinicius Junior for La Liga and Trent Alexander-Arnold in England.

This list shows the Expected Threat in passing. Different types of players can do well with this stat. Another Ajax player (Tadic) is second on the list, as a left winger. Ajax’ Timber is on the list as a central defender, while Veerman (these are his Heerenveen stats) and Kökçü are more playmakers.

There is a separate stat Expected Threats in Dribbles. Cody Gakpo does really well in that overview and that will also play a role regarding the interest from Liverpool, Man City and Bayern Munich in signing the lanky PSV star.

Stats do not tell the full story of course. One aspect that is not taken into account in the Expected Threat stat is the position of the opponent. Only the start and end position of the move are used and not how many opponent players are taken out of the game by the pass. In this way, teams that dominate on the opponent’s half will always score higher in this stat than counter-attacking teams.

But, this does give us a very objective and measurable reason why Daley Blind is revered by the football experts and that he fully deserves the title of the King of the Pass before the Pass….

I’m sure some of you will start to comment like crazy now….

by Jan

Steven Berghuis: European Top!

Trust me, I didn’t write this post after Ajax – Besiktas. I started this post a day before. But Berghuis’ goal and assist do carry weight of course, considering today’s topic.

This is also not to keep on hammering home a point. This article was in Voetbal International this weekend and it seems only fair to bring this to your attention. As I know this blog has a number of Berghuis fans and Berghuis haters.

Only a month ago, Davy Klaassen position as Ajax’ #10 seemed not open for debate. Mr 1-0, as he is called, seemed to cruise in that role and last season he got 12 goals and 2 assists for his club, as midfielder.

And yes, Kudus and Berghuis could also play the #10 role, but Klaassen wouldn’t be easy to replace.

Berghuis was signed as a right winger, as alternative for Antony. And friend and foe knew, that was going to be a hell of a competition for Berghuis.

In the 3rd Eredivisie match vs Vitesse, Berghuis was even benched and he saw the Brazilian mercurial winger explode, scoring 3 assists.

Ten Hag did use Berghuis in that match, but as sub for the #10 position. Ten Hag: “I said it before, we have to start the competition while we are still trying to gel the team together. We have several players for the #10 role but they’re all a bit different in their execution. I will keep on trying things out when we can, because we need to be as flexible as possible. This particular move worked well and I might try this more often. But it takes time for players to get used to each others moves and patterns. But good players always find a way to play together.”

After the international break, with Berghuis in a key role as a winger, Klaassen returned with a slight injury and the former Feyenoord captain was placed in the #10 role again. Against PEC Zwolle, he had two assists. In the Sporing Lisbon game he scored his first goal and created several chances. Against Cambuur he scored and assisted and versus Fortuna Sittard he scored as well while creating two goals against FC Groningen.

And thus, the discussion started: does Klaassen deserve a protected role? Ten Hag: “No one has a protected role in our team. Davy is a starter, yes, but we have many. We simply look at form and fitness. But we also check what the match needs and what the opponents’ strengths and weaknesses are.” Is Ten Hag able to keep all his players happy? “That is the job of a coach. You don’t control that, 100% but you have to manage it anyway. The team is always more important than the individual. Every player needs to realise this.”

The Berghuis stats are imposing. He was involved in 8 goals in the Eredivisie this season. The only one bettering him is team mate and captain Dusan Tadic, who was involved 9 times. Bryan Linssen (Feyenoord) and Seb Haller are third.  Berghuis created 16 chances for team mates. Tadic, Veerman (Heerenveen), Sinisterra (Feyenoord), Wittek (Vitesse) and Gakpo (PSV) are the only ones doing better than Berghuis.

But when we look at his previous seasons in the Eredivisie, Berghuis appears to be a guarantee for hoals. Since he came back from Watford in 2016, there was no player in Holland with more goals (72) than him. Linssen has 64 goals and Tadic has 57 since that time. The latter played less game though. There is also no player with more assists than Berghuis: 54 in 156 matches, followed by Ziyech and Tadic.

Lets look at Europe now. The big Five competitions and the Dutch Eredivisie. Since the 2016/17 season, Thomas Muller is the master assist king: 76 assists in 161 matches. Kevin de Bruyne is second with 68 assists in 155 games, and Messi has 64 in 174 games. Berghuis is fourth, with 54 in 156 matches. Fifth on the list is Papu Gomez (Atalanta and Sevilla) with 50 assists in 174 games.